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TS Fred center may pass right over Houston County this evening

Published: Aug. 16, 2021 at 8:58 AM CDT
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UPDATE: 12:30 PM - Midday Monday update. Tropical Storm Fred has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, around 28 miles to the SSW of Cape San Blas. Landfall is likely later this afternoon as a strong tropical storm. Some dry air entrainment has resulted in a lopsided system and this presentation should continue through landfall.

WTVY 4WARN: TS Fred: 12 PM: Eglin AFB radar
WTVY 4WARN: TS Fred: 12 PM: Eglin AFB radar(Source: WTVY 4WARN Weather Team)

The computer model predictions shown here may be a little too slow, given a forward movement of around 12 mph. Gusty winds of 30-50 mph plus are possible south of I-10, with gusts over 40 mph possible into Southeast Alabama this evening.

WTVY 4WARN: TS Fred: 12 PM Update: 12am weather model
WTVY 4WARN: TS Fred: 12 PM Update: 12am weather model(Source: WTVY 4WARN Weather Team)

The center may come right over Houston County later this evening, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 40 mph or a little greater. Note the west and north sides of the eye feature will feature gusty winds, in addition to the east side of the circulation. The heaviest swath of rain may also occur along the northwest side of where the eye tracks, due to the best convergence of winds. Some spots in the coastal counties could see 10-13″ of rain, but generally there looks to be a swath of 6-8″ in the Panhandle and 3-6″ well inland.

WTVY 4WARN: TS Fred: 12 PM: 6pm weather model
WTVY 4WARN: TS Fred: 12 PM: 6pm weather model(Source: WTVY 4WARN Weather Team)

Expect rain to become more widespread across the area as we head through the afternoon, with the heaviest rain and gustiest winds between around 6 pm and 2 am in the Wiregrass. The better isolated tornado threat will be from Jackson County, FL, into Southwest Georgia and points eastward, from this afternoon through around midnight, but we’ll be monitoring SE Alabama, too.

WTVY 4WARN: TS Fred: 12 PM: wind gusts
WTVY 4WARN: TS Fred: 12 PM: wind gusts(Source: WTVY 4WARN Weather Team)

While this isn’t a worst-case scenario storm for us, we will be breezy and wet for the second half of Monday and through half of the night. Wind gusts over 40 mph could snap some branches and weak trees, so sporadic power outages are possible. Secure loose items around your property. We’ll have extensive coverage on our newscasts on WTVY-TV News 4 and live coverage this evening online.

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