The Tropics Are Turning Active

Published: Aug. 20, 2020 at 4:47 PM CDT
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DOTHAN, Ala. (WTVY) - The "wave train" is in full effect across the Atlantic Basin. We have one system in the Caribbean, one in the Central Atlantic and one in the Eastern Atlantic. We'll focus on waves 1 and 2 as they're both on track to move into the Gulf.

Wave 1 in the Caribbean is Tropical Depression 14 and looks well-organized Thursday afternoon. The westward track will become more northwesterly this weekend, with movement into the Gulf to follow. At this point, the favored areas for impact range from Texas to Louisiana by the early to middle portion of next week. This system looks to stay safely west of the Wiregrass.

Wave 2 in the Atlantic is Tropical Depression 13. Organization is slow with this system, so TD 14 may become a tropical storm before TD 13. However, development into a tropical storm with this disturbance is likely as it tracks to the WNW. The computer model guidance is pretty tightly-clustered, showing a track towards South Florida this weekend and the NHC forecast follows this thinking. If the center manages to avoid most of the islands, there’s a possibility we’ll see a hurricane. The intensity forecast, though, is challenging, as the system needs to overcome some dry air and some wind shear. This is part of the reason the computer model guidance ranges from a very weak tropical system to a potent hurricane as it moves into the Gulf. Given the projected track, we’ll need to watch this one closely and monitor its development. If we see impacts from this tropical system, we’re looking at the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday time-frame in the Wiregrass.

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