Three disturbances being watched for tropical development
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Three waves in the Atlantic basin are being watched with a potential for tropical development Wednesday as the climatological peak of the hurricane season approaches.
The most recent wave watched for potential development was a somewhat vigorous one moving off of Africa’s west coast Wednesday morning. The wave had deep convection mainly on the southern side of the large wave. The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 30% chance of development over the next five days as it moves westerly.
The next feature was located nearly 2,000 miles to the west of the aforementioned wave. The banding on the broad area of low pressure appeared impressive on satellite imagery, but most of the convection appeared on the western side of the system. A recent polar-orbiting satellite pass showed that winds were not quite closed around a center of circulation, leaving it an open wave as of Wednesday morning. There is a 90% chance of development over the next two to five days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The disturbance is expected to maintain a west-northwesterly trek over the next several days and could become a tropical depression by Friday.
The final wave is closer to the Big Bend and South Georgia and has an 80% chance of development over the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center. Convection was present over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but wasn’t organized Wednesday morning. Development odds over the next two days were moderate (60%), but odds will improve late week and into the weekend of tropical development as it moves west-northwestward.
The final destination and strength of these waves are difficult to determine this far in time. A reason is that these waves are over these data-sparse locations, leaving guidance models to ingest limited data. This means that guidance models may have a tough time displaying reliable runs.
It’s also important for those in hurricane-prone areas to be aware of where they are obtaining information from. There has been at least one questionable post on social media making bold and premature predictions. Be sure to receive and share information from reliable sources this hurricane season.
The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the tropics over the next several days and provide updates.
This story was updated Wednesday afternoon to reflect the change in development odds with these three features.
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