US Extended Forecast thru Nov 17

Short Range Forecast Discussion
Valid 00Z Mon Nov 11 2013 - 00Z Wed Nov 13 2013

...Plummeting temperatures and gusty winds will make for blustery
conditions behind an arctic front plunging through the Nation...

Light rain and snow showers will continue over the Lower Great Lakes and New England Sunday night into Monday...on the backside of a surface low and cold front lifting out towards the Canadian Maritimes.

As the system departs...an arctic boundary dropping down from Canada will begin its plunge through the Nation.

Plummeting temperatures and gusty winds will make for blustery conditions behind the front...which is expected to reach the Great Lakes...Midwest...and Central Plains by Monday morning...and then dive southeastward through the Northeast...Tennessee Valley...and
Southern Plains by Tuesday morning.

Moisture will be extremely sparse throughout the Nation...but light snow showers will be possible with the frontal passage...and upslope flow behind the front should streak light snow across Montana Sunday night into Monday.

Also...conditions should become favorable for lake effect snows as the front clears the Great Lakes region. An anomalous surface high filling in behind the front will keep much of the Central and Eastern U.S. dry and cool through the middle of week.

West of the Continental Divide...a system spinning up in the Eastern
Pacific will begin to inch towards the West coast the next few days. Some light to moderate precipitation is expected with the system's cold front approaching the Pacific Northwest and Northern California coasts Monday night and Tuesday.

Elsewhere across the Nation...easterly flow should continue to bring light shower and thunderstorm activity into the southern tip of Florida the next few days.

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Extended Forecast Discussion
Valid 12z Wed Nov 13 2013 - 12z Sun Nov 17 2013

...Overview And Model Preferences...

A Retrograding Upper Pattern Across The Pacific Ocean East Of The
Dateline Will Allow Troughing To Invade The Western Conus By Later
In The Week.

The Models/Ensembles Are In Good Agreement On This Synoptic Shift With Only Typical Differences By Sun/D7.

The Gfs/Gefs Become Quicker To Bring Height Falls Eastward Next
Weekend Than The 00z Ecmwf/Canadian And Ecens/Naefs Means... Which Can Be Their Bias... So Opted To Rely On Continuity And The Larger Ec/Canadian Cluster For The Forecast. Incorporated More Weighting Of The 00z Ecmwf For Details Earlier In The Period.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Cold Airmass Should Peak In The East/Southeast Early In The Period
As Troughing Moves Eastward Into The Atlantic.

Temperatures Should Be Well Below Normal... 10-20f Below Climo... Wed-Thu/D3-4 With Some Record Low Temperatures Possible.

Nw Flow Aloft Should Maintain A Relatively Dry Pattern Thereafter... Until Next Weekend As Energy Dives Through The Western Trough.

Gulf Should Reopen By Late Next Weekend As A Sfc System Moves Eastward Through The Plains... Allowing For More Widespread Precip Over The Lower Ms Valley As Well As Over The Pac Nw.


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