US Extended Forecast thru May 15

The Highlight Of The Pattern Is A More-Amplified Ridge-Trough Pattern Along The West And Northeast Coasts Of The Continent.

By Day 7-8...A Rather Broad Upper-Level Trough Envelopes A Large Portion Of Ontario Province...The Upper Great Lakes Region And Hudson Bay. A Substantial Ridge Anchors From California Northward Into The Alaska Panhandle.

The Day 4-5 System Migrating From The South Central Rockies Into
The Upper Great Lakes Will Set The Higher-Amplitude Pattern In
Motion. With Models Forming A Solid Consensus At Day 8 (16/12z) Along The East Coast Of The Conus...The Question Is More A Storm Track Issue From Lake Superior Into James Bay That Will Eventually Determine How Much Or How Little Negative-Tilt Is Generated Over New England And The Canadian Maritimes.

If There Was A Slight Adjustment To The Dailies...It Was To Slow Down The Frontal Progression Between The Ms Valley And The Appalachians Day 5-6.

Secondary By-Products Of The Developing Pattern Will Be The Depth
Of A Cooler...Canadian Air Spreading South Of The Missouri And
Ohio Rivers.

While Along The West Coast...Expect A Block...With Ridging And Offshore Flow To Be On The Increase Through The Period.

This Leaves The Continental Divide And High Plains Sandwiched Between The High-Amplitude Flow---With A Northwest Mid-Level Flow Spreading Downwind Into The Arkansas River Basin And Ozarks.

The 7/12z Gfs/Gefs Maintains A Faster Forward Speed Through The
Upper Midwest By The Mid-Point Of Day 5 (13/12z)...But It Has
Backed Off Its Strong Shortwave Tracking Through The St Lawrence
Valley.

So Would Recommend Leaning Towards A 7/12z Naefs/Ecens
Compromise To Get Away From The Gefs/Gfs Solution After Day 5...To
Mitigate Its Faster Downstream Solutions Through The Ohio Valley
And Into The Northeast.

A By-Product Of The Faster Gefs/Gfs Solution In The West Is The Premature Break Down And/Or Weakness Of The Ridge In The Puget Sound Corridor.


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