US Extended Forecast thru Mar 23

...Overview And Model Preferences...

The 16/00z Deterministic Gfs/Ecmwf And Gefs/Ecens/Naefs Ensemble Means Packages Maintain A Solid Medium Range Forecast Solution Through Day 5.

A Significantly Faster Canadian Model Solution Over Eastern North America Beyond Day 5 Provided Less Reliability In The Neafs Means --With Respect To How Progressive The Migratory Wave Pattern Will Become By Next Weekend Along The Us/Canadian Border And Eastward Into The Canadian Maritimes.

Overall...The Entire Ensemble Suite Depicts And Supports The
Series Of Northern Stream-Dominant Weather Systems Migrating
Through The Lower 48 Through Day 7.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Day 3-4 Cyclone Tracking Through The Central Great Lakes And
Across Southern Ontario Day 5...Remains On Track.

This System Looks To Generate A Swath Of Moderate Snowfall Accumulations Across Portions Of The Upper Midwest...And Generate A Broad Area Of Warm Advection Ahead Of It For The Mid-Ms And Ohio Valleys.

Deep Convection Is A Possibility Along And Ahead Of The Cold Front.

By Day 5...Wpc Graphics Supported The Notion That Some Negative-Tilt To The Trough Axis Will Attempt To Develop In The Gulf Of Maine...But Quickly Intensify Downstream Over Labrador.

In The Pacific Northwest And Intermountain West...Mid-Level Troughs And Lee Side Cyclogenesis Will Be A Periodic Feature Of The Pattern Across The Southern Canadian Rockies And Northern Rockies.

Another Feature Of This Pattern...Will Be The East-Southeastward Shearing Action Of These Systems Downstream Across The Central Plains And The Dry...But Fast-Moving Fropas.

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