Severe Weather Threat thru Nov 17

Sun Nov 10 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

No Tstms Are Expected Across The Lower 48 States This Forecast Period.

A Strong Band Of Mid And Upper Level Wnwly Winds Will Persist From
The Nrn Plains Through The Great Lakes To Parts Of The Mid Atlantic
States And Srn New England.

Forcing For Ascent And Cold Midlevel Temperatures/Steep Lapse Rates Attendant To A Potent/Compact Impulse Resulted In A Burst Of Lightning Between 10/21-23z Near And Offshore Of The Ma South Coast And Cape Cod As A Front Moved Ewd.

Tstms/ Lightning Are No Longer Expected Across This Area As The Impulse... Parent Shortwave Trough And Surface Front Continue To Shift East Of New England.


Mon Nov 11 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Move Across The Great Lakes
Region On Monday.

Isolated Thunder Will Be Possible During The Day Across The Ern Part Of Lake Superior...Nrn Part Of Lake Mi And Lake Huron Due To Strong Large-Scale Ascent And Steep Lapse Rates Above The Lakes As The Exit Region Of A Mid-Level Jet Passes Across The Region.

Convection May Also Develop Monday Afternoon Along An Axis Of Instability In Nrn Ok And Se Ks But Weak Large-Scale Ascent Should Keep Any Thunderstorm Activity Isolated.

None Of The Convection Across The Conus Is Expected To Reach Severe Limits Monday Or Monday Night.


Tue Nov 12 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

As A Significant Mid-Level Impulse Progresses Inland...Across And To
The Lee Of The Canadian Rockies...Models Indicate That Ridging Over Interior Western North America Will Flatten And Flow Will Become More Zonal During This Period.

However...Further Amplification Of Large-Scale Mid/Upper Troughing Appears Likely Across The Eastern U.S...Coincident With The Continued Southeastward Progression Of A Significant Low-Level Cold Intrusion Across The Gulf Coast Into The Gulf Of Mexico...And Across The Atlantic Seaboard Into The Western Atlantic.

By 12z Wednesday...The Leading Edge Of This Air Mass At The Surface May Reach Southern Portions Of The Florida Peninsula.

These Developments Are Expected To Reinforce Generally Stable
Conditions Across Much Of The U.S...With Convective Potential
Remaining Low To Negligible Tuesday And Tuesday Night.

Florida Peninsula...

The Operational Nam...In Particular...Appears Too Aggressive With
Moistening And Destabilization Across The Interior Florida Peninsula ...Especially North Central Portions. However...Locally Enhanced Low-Level Convergence...At Least Near Southern Coastal Areas... May Support Widely Scattered Daytime And Evening Thunderstorm Activity...Aided By Large-Scale Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion Ahead Of The Digging Southern Portion Of The Approaching Upper Trough.


Nov 13-20 Convective Outlook

In The Wake Of A Significant Low-Level Cold Intrusion To The Lee Of
The Rockies...Into The Western Atlantic And Through Much Of The Gulf Of Mexico By Wednesday Morning...Convective Potential Appears Likely To Remain Low Through At Least The Remainder Of The Work Week.

Guidance Has Been Suggestive That A Southerly Return Flow Off The
Gulf Of Mexico Probably Will Develop By Next Weekend...But The
Extent Of Gulf Boundary Layer Modification And Inland Moisture
Return During This Time Remains Uncertain And A Point Of Model

Additionally...Variability Increases Among The Models...And The Spread Within Various Model Ensembles Becomes Quite Large... Concerning Short Wave Developments Within The Prevailing Split Upper Flow Regime.

Strong Surface Cyclogenesis Likely Will Be Necessary Somewhere To The East Of The Central Or Southern Rockies To Support A Substantive Increase In Severe Thunderstorm Potential.

While This May Not Be Out Of The Question ...Potential Still Appears
Low At The Present Time.

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