Severe Weather Threat thru Nov 16

Sat Nov 9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

South Florida Excluding The Florida Keys...

During The Past 24 Hours...Sfc Obs Indicate That Winds Have
Decidedly Veered From Nnely To Enely/Ely...In Association With The
Ewd Translation Of A Sfc Anticyclone Well To The N.

As The Sfc High -- Currently Over The Cntrl/Srn Appalachians And Adjacent Piedmont -- Shifts Ewd And Off The Atlantic Coast And Sfc Pressures Fall Along A Wwd-Trailing Ridge Into The Sern States Preceding A Low-Amplitude Impulse...Moderate To Fresh Enely/S And Ely/S Will Be Maintained Over South Florida. This Will Support The Influx Of A Comparatively More Maritime Environment...With Gps Data And 12z Miami/Key West Raob/S Indicating A Ribbon Of 1.8-2.0-Inch Pw Values Near And S Of A Stalled...E/W-Oriented Frontal Boundary That Crosses The Lake Okeechobee Region.

While The Aforementioned Soundings Indicate Fairly Poor Lapse Rates Through The Lower/Middle Troposphere...Vis Imagery Indicates Areas Of Insolation Amidst Rich Boundary-Layer Moisture /E.G. Sfc Dewpoints In The Lower 70s/. Sbcape Will Likely Increase To Around 1000-1500 J/Kg By Mid Afternoon...Fostering An Increase In The Depth Of Convection That Will Be Bolstered By Ascent Invof The Front And Augmented Around Peripheries Of Multi-Layered Cloud Regions Along With Weak...Interior-To-West-Coast-Focused Sea Breeze Circulations.

Modified Soundings Suggest That Convective Plumes Could Extend
Sufficiently Deep Into Icing Layers Aloft For A Few Afternoon/Early-Evening Thunderstorms Over The East Coast Metropolitan Areas From Miami And Homestead To Fort Lauderdale And Boca Raton ...And Wwd Across South Florida To The Gulf Waters Off The Sw Coast Near And S Of Naples. Accordingly...A General-Thunderstorm
Area Has Been Introduced.

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Sun Nov 10 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Across The Nern U.S. On Sunday As
Sfc High Pressure Dominates The Cntrl And Ern States.

In Response ...A Cool And Dry Airmass Will Be In Place Across Much Of The Conus Limiting The Potential For Thunderstorm Activity Sunday And Sunday Night.

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Mon Nov 11 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Models Indicate That Upper Flow Across The Pacific Will Remain
Amplified Through This Forecast Period...While Downstream Flow
Across Canada And The U.S. Becomes Increasingly Amplified. Upper
Ridging Appears Likely To Build Along An Axis North-Northeast Of A
Subtropical Eastern Pacific High Center Through The Intermountain
West And Adjacent Northern Rockies.

At The Same Time...Cyclonic Mid/Upper Flow Is Expected To Sharpen East Of The High Plains Through The Atlantic Seaboard...As A Vigorous Short Wave Impulse Continues Digging Southeast Of The Upper Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley Region.

In Association With These Developments...The Center Of An Expanding/Strengthening Surface High Is Forecast To Shift South Of The Central Canadian/U.S. Border Area...Into The Middle Missouri Valley By Late Monday Night.

The Leading Edge Of This Cold Intrusion May Curve Across Northern And Middle Atlantic Coastal Areas Through The Central Gulf States And Southern Plains By 12z Tuesday. While This Will Generally Act To Contribute To The Reinforcement Of Stable Conditions With Low Convective Potential...The Risk For Weak Thunderstorm Activity May Not Be Completely Negligible In At Least A Couple Of Areas Monday/ Monday Night.

Great Lakes Region...

As Cold Lower/Mid Tropospheric Air Overspreads The Relatively Warm Lake Waters...Thermodynamic Profiles Are Expected To Become Favorable For The Development Of Charge Separation And Lightning Within Low-Topped Convection. Wind Fields And Shear Likely Will Become Supportive Of Elongated Organized Bands Of Convection...With Potential For Lightning Across Lake Superior Coastal Areas Of Upper Michigan By Early Monday Afternoon... Coastal Northern Lower Michigan By Late Monday Afternoon...And Perhaps The Remainder Of Lake Michigan Coastal Areas Of Lower Michigan Monday Evening Into Monday Night.

South Central Plains...

Models Suggest That Weak Boundary Layer Based Destabilization Is
Possible Monday Afternoon In A Pre-Frontal Corridor Across Western
Into North Central Oklahoma...On The Edge Of Stronger High Plains
Surface Heating...Where Surface Dew Points May Reach The Lower/Mid 50s F.

Although Mid/Upper Forcing For Ascent May Be Negligible...It Appears That An Area Of Enhanced Low-Level Convergence Or Lift Along The Front May Be Sufficient To Support At Least Isolated Thunderstorm Development. With The Tendency For Any Activity To Become Undercut By The Front While Developing Southward/Southwestward During The Late Afternoon And Evening Hours...Severe Wind/Hail Potential Appears Negligible In The Presence Of Weak To Modest Shear.

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Nov 12-16 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

The Spread Among The Models...And Within The Various Model
Ensembles...Becomes Quite Large Concerning The Evolution Of The
Upper Flow Pattern By Late Next Week Into Next Weekend...Which Could Include The Development Of An Amplified Upper Trough Across The Western Into Central United States.

Regardless...In The Wake Of A Significant Cold Intrusion Through Much Of The Nation East Of The Rockies...The Gulf Of Mexico...And Western Atlantic...By The Middle Of Next Week...Gulf Boundary Layer Modification And Inland Return Flow Will Not Likely Be Supportive Of An Appreciable Increase In Convective Potential Prior To The End Of This Forecast Period.


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