Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 31

Mon Mar 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Earlier Thoughts Regarding Convective Potential Across South Fl
Remain (see below).

However...Minor Adjustments Have Been Made To The General Thunderstorm Line Across Scntrl Tx. Elevated Convection With
Embedded Lighting Has Developed Across Bandera/Bexar/Guadalupe Counties. This Activity Will Spread Esewd Toward The Upper Tx Coast Where Tstm Probabilities Remain Above 10 Percent This Period.

A Midlevel Shortwave Trough Over The Srn Prairie Provinces Will Dig Sewd And Amplify Over The Mid Ms Valley By Early Tuesday... As Initial Cyclogenesis Occurs Well Downstream Along A Pre-Existing Baroclinic Zone Just N Of The Bahamas.

This Boundary Extends Wwd Across S Fl And The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico...Where Convection Will Be Focused Through The Period.

However...The Degree Of Destabilization Is Unclear Across S Fl With Widespread Clouds And Weak N Winds Today...And With Primary Cyclogenesis Expected Late In The Period Off The Fl E Coast.

The Strongest Storms Will Likely Remain Off The Sw Fl Coast...In Proximity To The Surface Wind Shift And Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures.

Otherwise...A Few Elevated Thunderstorms Will Be Possible Invof The Lower/Middle Tx Coast In A Weak Waa Regime Above The Shallow Cool Air Mass.


Tue Mar 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

South Fl...

Strong Mid-Level Speed Max...In Excess Of 100kt At 500mb...Will Dig
Sewd Across Sern Ks Into Ga By 26/00z.

This Feature Is Expected To Induce Intense Sfc Cyclogenesis Off The Middle Atlantic Coast That Will Result In Deepening Offshore Flow Across Gulf/Atlantic Coasts.

Prior To Frontal Passage Over South Fl...Moist But Weak Lapse Rates
Should Contribute To Sufficient Buoyancy For A Threat Of Convection.

This Activity Should Remain Weak And May Attain Heights Necessary
For A Few Lightning Strikes.

Even So...Majority Of Tstms Should Be Concentrated Offshore Where Convergence Will Be Maximized.

Srn Rockies/West Tx...Rio Grande Valley...

Srn Stream Short-Wave Trough Will Eject Across The Nrn Baja
Peninsula Early In The Day2 Period Before Approaching Far West Tx
During The Overnight Hours.

Latest Model Guidance Suggests Significant Dcva/Steep Lapse Rates Will Induce Ascent Across This Region Such That Sct Elevated Thunderstorms Should Evolve.

With Time Increasing Llj Should Encourage Newd Development / Expansion Into The Tx South Plains After Midnight.

Forecast Soundings Exhibit A Few Hundred J/Kg Mucape If Lifting Parcels Near 700mb And Buoyancy Will Be Too Weak To Warrant Any Meaningful Threat Of Hail.

Pacific Nw...

Strong Short-Wave Trough Will Move Inland Around 26/00z Along The
Ore/Nrn Ca Coast.

Significant Mid-Level Cooling And Steepening Lower Tropospheric Lapse Rates Should Contribute To Profiles Favorable For Convection In The Lowest 6km.

Downstream...Strong Heating Across Interior Ore/Wa/Nrn Id May Prove Adequate For Isolated Thunderstorms Given Favorable Ascent Within Exit Region Of Mid-Level Speed Max.


Wed Mar 26 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

The Mid/Upper Flow Appears Likely To Continue To Trend More Zonal
And Progressive Across The U.S. During This Forecast Period.

While A Deep Lower/Mid Tropospheric Cyclone Gradually Migrates
Northeastward Away From The New England Coast...A Short Wave
Impulse...Embedded Within The Main Belt Of Westerlies Emerging From The Mid Latitude Pacific...Is Forecast Rapidly Move Inland Across The Pacific Coast...Toward The Central Plains.

Considerable Spread Exists Among The Various Models Concerning The Manner/Speed With Which This Occurs...And Its Impact On Surface Cyclogenesis Within/Along A Lee Surface Trough/Developing Cold Front Across The Central Plains Into Upper Mississippi Valley Region.

However...Guidance Does Appear In General Agreement That Surface
Ridging Along The Western And Central Gulf Coast Will Be Slow To
Recede And Weaken.

Inland Moisture Return Within A Developing Southerly Return Flow Off The Gulf Of Mexico...Ahead Of The Lee Surface Trough /Via The Lower Rio Grande Valley/...As Well As Above The Modifying Boundary Layer Along The Gulf Coast...Still Appears Likely To Be Somewhat Modest.

The Lack Of A More Robust Moisture Return Likely Will Limit The
Magnitude Of Destabilization Wednesday And Wednesday Night.

This In Turn Is Expected To Minimize The Risk For Severe Storms ... But At Least Low Probabilities For Thunderstorms Appear To Exist Across Much Of The Central And Southern Plains Into The Lower Mississippi Valley...In Association With Developing Weak Instability And Large-Scale Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion.

Low Probabilities For Weak Thunderstorm Activity Also Appear To Exist Beneath The Upper Cold Pool Across A Broad Area Of The West.


Mar 27-31 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

The Latest Medium Range Guidance Does Not Seem Offer Much In The Way Of Greater Certainty Concerning Severe Weather Potential Across The Central And Eastern U.S. During The Early Portions Of This Forecast Period.

Considerable Spread Exists Among The Models Concerning Developments Associated With A Short Wave Trough Within An
Increasingly Zonal And Progressive Regime...As It Advances Across
And East Of The Rockies During The Latter Portion Of This Week.

Significant Surface Cyclogenesis Does Appear Probable To The Lee Of The Central Rockies By 12z Thursday...Before It Tracks East
Northeastward Across The Great Lakes Region And St. Lawrence Valley By The Weekend.

While A Slower And Stronger Development Than That Currently Suggested By The Gfs/Ncep Mref Currently Seems Most Probable...It Still Seems Most Likely That The Eastward And Northeastward Progression Of The Stronger Mid/Upper Forcing For Large-Scale Ascent And Deep Layer Flow Fields...Away From The Gulf Of Mexico...Will Occur Prior To The Development Of A Seasonably Moist Return Flow.

The Modest Nature Of The Return Flow Probably Will Limit The Extent Of The Convective Potential.

At Least Low Severe Probabilities May Develop Across Parts Of The South Central Plains And Ozark Plateau Through The Lower Ohio / Tennessee Valley Region...Perhaps Into The Mid Atlantic Coast ...Thursday And Friday.

Certainty Is Not Great Enough At This Time To Introduce A Regional Severe Risk Area.

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