Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 23

Sun Mar 16 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Fl...

The Northeastern Part Of An Extensive /400+ Mile/ Squall Line /And
Associated Composite Outflow/ Across The Gulf Of Mexico Will
Continue A Gradual East-Southeastward Movement Across The Northeast Gulf Of Mexico And North Fl Tonight...Potentially Reaching
Additional Parts Of The West-Central Fl Peninsula Monday Morning.

While A Consequential Uptick In Intensity/Organization Is Not
Expected Within A Modest Buoyancy/Weak Lapse Rate Environment ...The Risk For A Couple Of Stronger/Potentially Severe Tstms Capable Of Localized Wind Damage And/Or A Tornado Will Exist Given Sufficiently Strong Shear And Some Increase In Boundary Layer Moisture Tonight.

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Mon Mar 17 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Parts Of Fl Peninsula...

A Progressive Upper Pattern -- Featuring Two Prominent Troughs -- Is
Expected Over The U.S. Day 2.

One Of The Troughs -- Initially Lying Over The Pac Nw Vicinity -- Is Forecast To Dig/Expand Esewd Across The Intermountain W And Emerge Into The Plains During The Second Half Of The Period.

The Second -- And More Prominent Trough With Respect To Severe Potential -- Is Forecast To Move Ewd Across The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico Through The First Half Of The Period...And Then Accelerate Ewd Across The Central And Ern Gulf Overnight.

At The Surface...A Low And Associated Cold Front Crossing The
Intermountain West Is Forecast To Shift Into The Nrn Plains Through
The Afternoon.

Afterward...The Low Is Progged To Deepen Overnight...Allowing A Sewd Cold Frontal Surge Across The High Plains And Into The Mid Mo Valley/Central Plains.

Meanwhile...A Convectively Reinforced Ene-Wsw Boundary Is Forecast To Reside Over The Nrn Fl Peninsula...Which Should Make Slow Swd Progress Through The Day As Convection Persists.

Overnight...Low Pressure Is Progged To Deepen Over The Ern Gulf And Move Ewd Across Central Fl Along The Baroclinic Zone...As The Upper Trough Approaches.

Fl...

Widespread Convection Is Forecast To Be Ongoing From The Sern
Atlantic Coast Swwd Across Nrn Fl And Into The Gulf Of Mexico...With
Showers And Thunderstorms Expected To Stream Continually Newd Across This Same Zone Through The Day -- Resulting In Persistent Heavy Rainfall Across The Nrn Fl Vicinity.

Along And Ahead Of The Leading Edge Of The Convective Band...A Moist Boundary Layer Will Aid Modest Diurnal Destabilization Which -- Combined With Sufficient Shear Supported By 50-Plus Kt Mid-Level Wswly Flow -- Suggests Some Risk For Isolated/Damaging Gusts With A Few Stronger Convective Updrafts.

Somewhat Greater Severe Risk May Evolve Overnight -- As The Upper
System Approaches And A Gradually Strengthening Surface Low Moves Across The Peninsula.

As Background Ascent Strengthens...A More Linearly Organized/ Vigorous Convective Band May Result...Yielding Continued Severe Risk -- Primarily In The Form Of Damaging Winds -- Through The End Of The Period.

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Tue Mar 18 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Srn Fl Peninsula...

An Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Approach The Fl Peninsula At
Daybreak On Tuesday And Cross The Fl Peninsula By Early Afternoon.

Thunderstorms Should Be Ongoing At The Start Of The Period Along A Sfc Trough Oriented From Northeast To Southwest Across The Scntrl Fl Peninsula.

Sfc Dewpoints Ahead Of The Line Near 70 F...Moderate Instability And Strong Low-Level Flow May Be Enough For A Marginal Severe Threat Through Early Afternoon With Isolated Damaging Wind Gusts Possible.

However...The Line Is Expected To Move Off The Southeast Coast Of Fl During The Afternoon Ending The Threat From Northwest To Southeast.

At This Point...There Is Still Some Question As To The Exact Position Of The Convective Line At 12z Tuesday.

The Ecmwf And Gfs Solutions Appear To Be Reasonable With The Line Being Near Or Just To The West Of Lake Okeechobee.

This Positioning Would Take The Line Offshore By Early Afternoon.

The Severe Threat Could Linger Across South Fl Into The Middle Afternoon If The Slower Nam Solution Is Closer To Being Correct.

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Mar 19-23 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

The Ecmwf And Gfs Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period In Close Agreement
With An Upper-Level Trough Over The Ms Valley.

The Models Move This Feature Ewd Into The Great Lakes Region On Wednesday/Day 4 And Into The Cntrl And Nrn Appalachian Mtns On Thursday/Day 5.

The Gfs Is The Faster Solution.

For Friday/Day 6...The Models Have Wly Mid-Level Flow In Place Across The Sern States.

Moisture Return May Occur In The Srn Plains Where Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Friday Afternoon.

The Potential For Strong Thunderstorm Development May Continue In The Srn Plains And Move Ewd Into The Ozarks And Lower Ms Valley For Saturday/Day 7 Along The Nrn Edge Of Instability As Minor Impulses Move Ewd Across The Region.

The Current Thinking Is That The Severe Threat Will Remain Isolated For Day 6 And Day 7.

However...Due To The Extended Nature Of The Forecast Range And
Questions Concerning Moisture Return...Predictability Remains Low
For This Part Of The Day 4 To 8 Period.


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