Severe Weather Threat thru Jun 14

Sat Jun 7 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Srn Rockies to Lower/Mid-Ms Valley...

Isolated To Scattered Severe Storms Should Peak In The Afternoon / Evening From The Southern Rockies To The Lower/Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Damaging Winds...Large Hail...And A Few Tornadoes Are Anticipated.

An Enhanced Risk Of These Hazards Is Forecast From Northeast New Mexico To The South Plains Of Texas.

Low-Amplitude Height Pattern Will Persist Across Much Of The Conus
With The Belt Of Generally Moderate Mid-Level Wlys Anchored From The Srn High Plains Towards The Lower/Mid-Ms Valley.

Ongoing Large-Scale Mcs Over The Great Plains Should Evolve Into An Mcv That Becomes Centered Over The Mid-Ms Valley This Afternoon.

An Upstream Shortwave Impulse Over Ca Should Dampen As It Tracks Toward Az.

At The Surface...Composite Convective Outflow/Effective Frontal
Boundary Should Lie From The Mid-South To Srn Ok And The Tx S Plains This Afternoon.

Lee Of The Srn Rockies...

Scattered Supercells Should Form With Risks Of Significantly-Sized Large Hail...A Few Tornadoes...And Locally Severe Winds.

As A Sly Llj Strengthens Over The Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau In The Evening...Discrete Convection Should Grow Upscale Into A Sewd-Moving Mcs With An Increasing Risk Of Severe Winds Into The Tx S Plains.

Lower/Mid-Ms Valley...

Most Model Guidance Suggest An Mcv Will Emanate Ewd From The Ks/Ok Border Area To Near Saint Louis.

This Should Focus Organized Severe Storm Potential This Afternoon/Evening.

With 60s Surface Dew Points At Present Across The Ms Valley...It Appears Plausible That Weak To Moderate Destabilization May Occur Where Pockets Of Greater Insolation Are Realized. Such A Setup Could Yield Supercells And Organized Clusters Capable Of All Severe Hazards.


In Between The Mcv To The Ne And High Plains Upslope Regime To The W...Convective Development Should Largely Be Driven By Modest
Low-Level Waa In The Evening Atop The Composite Front/Outflow.

A Moderately Favorable Combination Of Cape/Shear For Rotating Updrafts Should Yield Severe Hail/Wind. But This Risk Should Largely Be Isolated Given The Near-Parallel Alignment Of Mid-Level Winds To The Initiating Boundary...As Well As Overall Instability Likely Subdued
Somewhat In The Wake Of The Extensive Overturning On Fri/Early Sat.


After Recent Days Of Convective Overturning...700-500 Mb Lapse Rates Will Be Weaker And Should Largely Range From 6-6.5 Deg C/Km.

Still...With Diurnal Heating Of A Richly Moist Air Mass...The
Environment Will Be Conducive To Locally Damaging Winds And
Marginally Severe Hail From Multicell Storms Amidst Modest Mid-Level

Have Expanded Low Severe Probabilities Ewd To The Atlantic Coast To Account For This Expectation.


Sun Jun 8 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for parts of South Plains to North Ms/Al...

Thunderstorms Are Expected From Portions Of The Southern Plains Into The Parts Of The Lower Mississippi Valley And Northern Mississippi And Alabama Sunday Afternoon Into The Overnight Hours.

Strong Winds And Large Hail Will Be The Main Threats.

A Shortwave Trough Is Expected To Deepen As It Moves Out Of The Rockies During The Afternoon And Across The Plains Overnight.

A Nearly Stationary W-E Oriented Sfc Boundary Will Lie Across Parts Of The Srn Plains Into Cntrl Ar And Nrn Ms/Al...Serving As A Focus For Thunderstorm Development During The Afternoon...Before Upscale Growth Results In One Or More Overnight Mcs/S Across The Slight Risk Area.

Southern Plains To Nrn Ms/Al...

Uncertainty Remains Regarding The Exact Evolution Of Severe Threat
Sunday Afternoon/Evening As...Similar To The Previous Two Or Three
Days...Overnight Convection On Saturday/Day 1 Will Influence Where
Exactly Sfc Boundaries Settle To Focus Development On Sunday.

At The Beginning Of The Period...A W-E Oriented Stationary Boundary
Is Expected To Be Located South Of Ongoing Convection Across Parts
Of Tx/Ok In The Vicinity Of E-Central Nm To Along The Red River Into
Central Ar And Nrn Ms/Al.

As The Upper Trough Amplifies And Begins To Eject Out Of The Rockies...Sfc Low Pressure Will Develop Along/To The North Of The Boundary In The Vicinity Of The Srn High Plains And Also Near The Lower Oh Valley.

This Will Result In The Boundary Sagging Southward Across The Slight Risk Area As An Effective Cold Front.

A Very Moist Airmass /Dewpoints Mid 60s To Low 70s F/ Is Forecast Near And To The South Of The Front.

As Sfc Heating Occurs...Moderate To Strong Instability Will Allow For Scattered Thunderstorm Development.

Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates And Adequate 0-6km Shear Should Result In Some Discrete Supercells...Initially In Moist Upslope E/Sely Flow Across The Srn High Plains Into W Tx.

In The Vicinity Of The Front Across Nrn Ms/Al Where A Lead Shortwave
Impulse Will Overspread That Region During The Afternoon... Scattered Strong To Severe Storms Will Also Be Possible.

The Main Threat With Storms During The Afternoon Will Be Large Hail And Strong Winds.

As The Low Level Jet Increases During The Evening...Storms Should
Once Again Grow Upscale Into One Or Mcs/S Tracking Ewd Across The Slight Risk Area.

Central Plains...

Thunderstorms Developing Over The High Plains Of Ern Co/Wrn Neb Are Expected To Evolve Into An Mcs Overnight And Track Ewd Across Parts Of Neb/Ks As The Main Upper Low Ejects Ewd And A Sfc Cold Front Drops S/Sewd Into The Central Plains.

Instability Will Be Limited...But Adequate...And Coupled With Steep Lapse Rates...Some Stronger Cells Capable Of Marginal Hail/Wind Are Possible During The Evening And Overnight.


Mon Jun 9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Strong To Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Are Possible Across Parts Of Central Texas Into The Mid And Lower Mississippi And Tennessee
Valleys On Monday And Monday Night.

Gusty Winds And Hail Will Be The Main Threats With Stronger Storms.

An Upper Low Is Forecast To Develop On Monday Over The Southern And Central Plains...And Shift Ewd Toward The Ozark Plateau By 12z

At The Sfc...Weak Low Pressure Over Srn Ks Will Slowly Meander Ewd Toward Sw Mo By Tuesday Morning.

A Trailing Cold Front Will Track Se Into Cntrl Ok And Wrn N Tx By Evening...Before Stalling...Or Only Shifting Slowly Se Through The Overnight Hours.

Periods Of Thunderstorms Are Expected Across Parts Of The Cntrl/Ern
Tx Into The Tn Valley Ahead Of This Front And Approaching Upper
Low...In Strengthening Deep Layer Swly Flow.

Cntrl/Ern Tx...Ozark Plateau...Mid/Lower Ms And Tn Valleys...

Convection Will Likely Be Ongoing At The Beginning Of The Period
Across Much Of Ok/Ar And Potentially N Tx.

The Exact Location Of This Ongoing Convection Will Depend On Where Overnight Mcs/S Develop During The Day 2/Sunday Period.

Downstream Of This Morning Convection Across Parts Of Cntrl/Ern Tx Newd Toward Wrn Tn...A Warm/Moist And Unstable Airmass Will Be In Place.

Convection Is Expected To Develop During The Afternoon On The Southern Periphery Of The Morning Mcs And/Or The Outflow Laid Out By This Expected Convection.

Afternoon Storms Could Produce Some Strong Winds And Large Hail. As The Sfc Cold Front Shifts Ewd During The Evening...And Deep Layer Swly Flow Increases In Tandem With The Llj...Another Mcs Is Likely To Develop And Shift E/Ne Across The Area.

Several Periods Of Thunderstorms And Mcs/S Between Now/Day 1
And The Day 3 Forecast Period Lends To Great Uncertainty In Where
Higher Severe Potential May Evolve...As Such...Only Low /5 Percent/
Probabilities Have Been Introduced To Highlight At Least Some
Potential For Severe Weather To Occur Into Monday Ahead Of The
Approaching Upper Low.


Jun 10-14 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

A More Progressive Pattern Is Expected During The Day 4-8 Period.

An Upper Low And Attendant Trough Over The Ozark Plateau Early On Day 4/Tue...Will Lift E/Ne Across The Midwest Toward The Lower Great
Lakes By Day 6/Thu.

As This Occurs...Portions Of The Mid/Lower Ms...Oh/Tn Valley Regions On Day 4/Tue And Day 5/Wed Will Likely See Some Organized...Possibly Severe Convection.

There Does Exist Some Uncertainty As To Where Exactly Within This Broader Region This May Occur As Medium Range Guidance Does Show Some Timing Differences Along With Resolving The Evolution Of A Sfc Low Differently.

Regardless...Widespread...Significant Severe Weather Does Not Appear Likely With This System.

Elsewhere...A Series Of Troughs Will Migrate Across The Pacific
Nw/Nrn Rockies And Into The Nrn Plains On Days 4-5 And Again Around Day 8.

This Should Lead To An Increase In Thunderstorm Activity Across Parts Of The Nrn Plains.

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