Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 27

Mon Jan 20 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

The Lack Of Sustained...Deep Boundary Layer Moistening Over The Gulf Of Mexico And Waters Off The Atlantic Coast Continues To Contribute To The Maintenance Of Generally Stable Conditions Across The Southeast...And Much Of The Remainder Of The U.S...With Negligible Risk For Thunderstorm Activity.

Prev Discussion...

Broad Cyclonic Upper Flow Is Present Today Over Most Of The United
States...With Dry And Stable Conditions Prevailing.

No Organized Areas Of Thunderstorms Are Forecast Across The Conus On Day1.

Nevertheless...An Isolated Lightning Strike Or Two Cannot Be Ruled
Out Late Tonight Across Parts Of Ls/Ms.


Tue Jan 21 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Substantive...Deep Boundary Layer Moistening Over The Gulf Of Mexico And Waters Off The South Atlantic Coast Remains Inhibited.

Little Change Is Expected Through This Forecast Period And Beyond ...As Large-Scale Central/Eastern U.S. Upper Troughing Deepens.

Embedded Within This Cyclonic Regime...Another Fairly Significant Short Wave Trough Is Forecast To Dig Through The Tennessee Valley By Early Tuesday...Before Turning Eastward...Then Northeastward ...Across The Southern Appalachians And Mid Atlantic Coast Region.

Models Suggest That This Feature May Contribute To The Development Of A Weak Wave Along A Reinforcing Surface Front To
The East Of The Southern Appalachians During The Day...Before Much More Significant Surface Cyclogenesis Takes Place Well East Of The Mid Atlantic Coast Late Tuesday Into Tuesday Night.

While This May Be Accompanied By Sufficient Steepening Of Low-Level Lapse Rates To Promote Low-Topped Convection Across Parts Of The Carolina Piedmont Into Coastal Plain...Appreciable Thunderstorm Probabilities Appear Generally Confined To Areas East Of Coastal Waters.


Wed Jan 22 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Blocking Pattern Characterized By A Synoptic Upper Trough East Of
The Rockies Will Persist Wednesday.

At The Sfc Another In A Series Of Cp High Pressure Areas Will Push Deep Into The Gulf Resulting In Stable Conditions Inland And Negligible Thunderstorm Chances.

An Isolated Strike Or Two Cannot Be Ruled Out Within The Lake Effect
Snow Regime...Mainly With Bands Feeding From Lake Superior Into
Upper Mi.

However...Coverage Of Any Such Activity Will Probably Remain Less Than 10%.


Jan 23-27 Convective Outlook

Model Consensus Including Most Ensemble Members Maintain Current Blocking Pattern Characterized By A Synoptic Trough Over The Ern U.S. And A Mean Ridge In The West Days 4-8.

This Regime Will Promote Several Intrusions Of Cp Air Across The Ern Half Of The Country And At Times Into The Gulf...Limiting The Return Of Richer Gulf Moisture.

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