Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 3

Mon Jan 27 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Cyclonic Flow Regime Will Be Maintained Over Much Of The Conus
Through The D1 Period With A Number Of Embedded Vorticity Maxima
Translating Through The Broader-Scale Pattern. In The Low Levels.

A Strong Cold Front Currently From The Nrn/Cntrl Appalachians To Nwrn Gulf Coast Will Advance Sewd To Off The Atlantic Coast Swwd Through The Nrn Fl Peninsula To Cntrl Gulf Of Mexico By 28/12z.

Sporadic Lightning Has Been Observed Today With Pre-Frontal Convection Along The Cntrl Gulf Coast Where The 12z Lix Sounding Showed A Moist And Weakly Unstable Environment For Parcels Rooted Just Above A Shallow...Near-Surface Inversion.

While Isolated Lightning Strikes Will Remain Possible With This Convection As It Moves Ewd Tonight...Decreasing Large-Scale Forcing For Ascent And Warming Midlevel Temperatures /With The Passage With A Weak Perturbation To The East/ Should Limit Overall Tstm Potential.


Tue Jan 28 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Upper Pattern Will Change Little Through Tuesday With A Synoptic
Upper Trough Persisting Over The Ern U.S. Along With An Upstream Ridge Over The Intermountain West.

A Shortwave Trough Will Drop Sewd Through The Synoptic Trough ...Reaching The Oh And Tn Valleys Tuesday Evening And Overnight.

A Strong Cold Front Extending From The Gulf Stream Area Swwd Through Nrn Fl Into The Nrn Gulf Will Advance Sewd During The Day...While A Large Area Of Arctic High Pressure Advances Through The Cntrl And Ern States.

Nrn Fl...

Widespread Rain Will Likely Develop Within Sw-Ne Frontogenetic Zone From Srn Ms Newd Through The Ern Carolinas Tuesday Afternoon And Evening...Then Swd Into Nrn Fl Overnight.

A Shallow Layer Of Weak Instability May Develop Over Nrn Fl Within Zone Of Stronger Post Frontal Moisture Transport Along Strengthening Llj.

Nam Forecast Soundings Show The Resulting Instability May Become Sufficient And Extend Through Deep Enough Layers For A Few Strikes Across Nrn Fl Later Tuesday Night...But Coverage Will Probably Remain Somewhat Isolated.


Wed Jan 29 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

General Deamplification Of The Large-Scale Pattern Will Continue
This Period...Featuring A Srn Stream Impulse Emanating Out Of Nrn
Mexico That Will Phase With A Cntrl Conus Trough And Progress Across The Nrn Gulf Basin.

A Subsequent Swd Shift In Stronger Wlys Aloft Will Occur Across The Southwest And Srn Rockies.

Meanwhile...Segment Of A Cold Front Draped Across The Srn Gulf Basin Into The Wrn Atlantic Will Slowly Progress Swd Across S Fl... And Could Support Isolated Low-Topped Convection During The Afternoon.

A Sfc Ridge Will Remain Established From The Wrn Gulf Coast Into The Appalachians...Maintaining A Dry Air Mass E Of The Rockies With
Minimal Tstm Potential Expected.


Jan 30-Feb 3 Convective Outlook

Progressive Low-Amplitude Pattern Will Likely Persist Into The
Weekend With Several Impulses Traversing W-E Across The Conus.

As A Result...Periodic Nwd Return Of Gulf Moisture Is Forecast To Occur Into Parts Of The S-Cntrl And Sern Conus.

Persistent Cp Air Mass Over This Region Should Begin To Modify Substantially Late Into The Weekend As An Impulse Quickly Ejects Newd Across The Cntrl Plains.

A Relatively Stronger Pacific Upper Trough Is Expected To Deepen And Approach The Srn Plains Mon/D8.

However...Timing/Orientation Of This System Is Still Uncertain...With Current Model Guidance Suggesting Greater Convective Threat May Occur Tue/D9 Into The Lower-Mid Ms Valley And Southeast.

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