Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 16

Sun Feb 9 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Broad...Weakly Cyclonic Flow With Minimal Large-Scale Change
Expected Over The Lwr 48 Through Mon.

Expansive Region Of Polar/Arctic Air Now Present At Lwr Lvls Will Be Reinforced Over The Cntrl And Ern States In The Wake Of A Series Of Low-Amplitude Disturbances Crossing The Grt Lks And Southeast.

Any Risk For Tstms Over The Conus This Period Should Occur In Association With E Pacific Impulse Now Centered Near 40n/140w.

Nrn Ca This Eve/Tngt...

E Pacific Upr Impulse Should Continue Ese...Reaching The Nrn Ca Cst This Eve And Wrn Nv Early Mon.

The System Does Not Appear To Be Very Strong In Satellite Imagery Attm...But Should At Least Maintain Its Present Moderate Intensity.

Given Amply-Moist Low-Lvl Environment Already In Place Across Nrn Ca...The Arrival Of Steepening Mid-Lvl Lapse Rates/Strengthening Ascent Accompanying The Impulse May Yield Isold To Wdly Sctd Convection Sufficiently Deep To Yield Thunder This Eve/Tngt...Mainly Over Favorably-Oriented Slopes Of The Cstl Range And Sierra.

Elsewhere...Sctd Showers May Linger Over The Fl Straits And Over The Gulf Stream Waters Off The Se Fl Cst Through Early Mon...But
Convection Should Remain Too Shallow/Feeble For Appreciable Coverage Of Thunder.


Mon Feb 10 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Progressive But Low Amplitude Trough Will Move Sewd Across The
Rockies And Into The Plains With Flow Aloft Becoming Zonal Over The
Ern States.

Heating Across The Four Corners Region Will Steepen Lapse Rates ...And A Lightning Strike Or Two Cannot Be Ruled Out With Any Weak Diurnal Convection.

To The E...A Broad Area Of High Pressure Will Encompass The Cntrl
And Ern Conus Keeping Surface Flow Offshore.

However...Swly Flow Atop The Stable Surface Air Will Materialize From The Red River Valley Into The Lower Ms Valley Overnight And In Advance Of The Four Corners Trough.

While Increasing Lift Will Result In Precipitation...Forecast Sounding Consensus Suggests Little If Any Instability To Support Elevated Thunderstorms.


Tue Feb 11 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Central Gulf Coast...

Late Evening Model Guidance Is In General Agreement Regarding The Evolution Of Split Stream Short-Wave Troughs Phasing Over The Lower Ms Valley Late In The Period.

Ecmwf Is More Amplified With The Unified Feature Over East Tx As Considerably Stronger Mid-Level Flow Digs Sewd Across The High Plains Into The Back Side Of The Trough.

Strong Continental Surge Will Force Sfc Front Well Off The Gulf Coast Early In The Period But A Weak Wave Is Expected To Develop Over The Ncntrl Gulf Basin During The Overnight Hours In Response To
Aforementioned Mid-Level Phasing.

For This Reason It Appears Ample Ascent/Moistening Will Be Noted Across Sern Tx/Srn La Into Srn Ms Atop The Much Colder Boundary Layer.

Forecast Soundings Suggest Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Be Steep Enough To Warrant A Threat For Elevated Convection And Perhaps Isolated Thunderstorms.

For Many Places Just Inland...Thunderstorms May Evolve Where Sfc Temperatures Approach Or Fall Below Freezing...Especially Across Sern Tx/Wrn Parts Of La.


Feb 12-16 Convective Outlook


Split Stream Phasing Of Short-Wave Troughs Should Evolve Into A
Significant Feature As It Progresses Along The Gulf Coast Wednesday ...Then Off The East Coast Early Thursday.

Latest Ecmwf Is Considerably Farther North With The Trough Late Wednesday As 110kt+ Mid Level Speed Max Ejects Newd Across The Carolinas.

The Gfs Allows A Weaker 90kt Speed Max To Translate Across The Nrn Fl Peninsula.

Either Solution Should Induce Sfc Cyclogenesis Along Trailing Cold
Front Over The Nrn Gulf Basin And Subsequent Movement Will Be
Modulated By Ejecting Mid-Level Speed Max.

The Degree Of Moistening/Destabilization Across The Peninsula... And Perhaps The Sern Coast...Will Be Largely Dictated By Movement Of Sfc Low.

Given The Expected Strength Of Mid-Level Flow There Is Some Concern That Organized Thunderstorms Could Evolve Ahead Of Cold Front.

If Sufficient Destabilization Can Occur Across The Warm Sector There
May Be A Need To Introduce Severe Probs To Account For This Threat.

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