Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 7

Sat Nov 30 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Quasi-Zonal Longwave Pattern Will Prevail Over The Conus Through Tonight...With A Degree Of Amplification Occurring Over Ontario And The Great Lakes Region Via A Southeastward-Digging Shortwave Trough.

A Nil Tstm Potential Is Expected Across The Conus Given The
Widespread Prevalence Of Cold/Dry Continental Trajectories And
Stable Conditions.

While Some Showers May Occur Near East Coastal Portions Of Fl/Ga Today...Broad Subsidence And An Associated Mid-Level Inversion Will Likely Keep Any Tstm Potential Well Offshore In The Atlantic.


Sun Dec 1 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Dry And Stable Conditions For Tstms Will Preclude Appreciable
Probabilities Over Much Of The Conus Through The Period.

The Lone Exception Should Be Across The Lower Ms Valley Sun Night.

As A Weak Shortwave Trough Rapidly Progresses E/Sewd From The Cntrl/Srn Rockies...Modest Strengthening Of Low-Level W/Swlys Should Yield Modification Of A Cp Air Mass.

The Nam Appears Rather Aggressive With The Degree Of Moisture Return And More Unstable Given Its Depiction Of Saturated Layers Between 925-800 Mb With Lapse Rates Near 10 Deg C/Km.

However...Scant Elevated Buoyancy May Develop And Could Result In Sporadic Lightning Strikes Amidst Scattered Showers During The Latter Half Of The Period.


Mon Dec 2 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Decaying Area Of Showers Is Anticipated To Be Ongoing Mon Morning In Association With A Rapidly-Moving Shortwave Trough Ejecting Across The Southeast.

Although A Couple Of Embedded Tstms May Occur Early...Waning Forcing For Ascent Along With Increasing Stability With Ern Extent Will Dampen The Risk.

In The Northwest...Scattered Convection Should Accompany An Amplifying Large-Scale Trough And Scant Buoyancy Might Yield Sparse Lightning Strikes.

In Both Areas...Overall Tstm Probabilities Appear Less Than 10 Percent Attm.


Dec 3-7 Convective Outlook

With A Maritime Tropical Air Mass Relegated To The Caribbean... Negligible Severe Potential Will Continue Into Mid-Week.

By D6-7...Air Mass Modification Will Have Occurred Across The Wrn
Gulf With A Longwave Trough Amplifying Over The Wrn Conus.

Poleward Moisture Transport Should Yield Weak Buoyancy Developing From The Wrn Gulf Coast Towards Perhaps As Far N As The Oh Valley Ahead Of A Relatively Strong Cold Front.

Although Poor Run-To-Run Continuity Exists With The Subsequent Evolution Of Individual Shortwave Impulses Ejecting Within The Trough...The Positive-Tilt Pattern And Rather Cold Air Mass Behind The Surface Front Will Probably Yield Cyclogenesis Divorced From The Richer Warm Sector.

This Should Result In Generally Anafrontal (Rain Along and Behind the Cold Front) Character With Deep-Layer Flow Paralleling The Front.

The Aforementioned Limiting Factors And Low Predictability Preclude Any Consideration Of An Enhanced Severe Weather Area Attm.

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