Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 22

Sun Dec 15 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

The Only Change To The Outlook Is To Move The Thunder Line Swd To Just North Of Lake Okeechobee.

The Thunder Potential Should Gradually Diminish Across Scntrl Fl As The Cold Front Continues To Advance Swd With The Front Moving Into The Fl Keys Later This Evening.

Prev Discussion...

Broad Cyclonic Flow Aloft Is Present Across The Contiguous United
States Today.

The Primary Baroclinic Zone Extends Across The Central Fl Peninsula...And Will Move Offshore This Evening.

In The Meantime...Moist And Unstable Conditions Will Allow Scattered
Showers And Thunderstorms Over South Fl This Afternoon.

No Organized Severe Storms Are Forecast.

Otherwise...No Tstms Are Forecast Today.

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Mon Dec 16 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Shortwave Trough Will Move Across The Ern Seaboard On Monday
Embedded In A Larger-Scale Upper-Level Trough Located In The Nrn And Ern States.

At The Sfc... High Pressure Will Dominate Much Of The Cntrl And Ern U.S. Keeping Low-Level Moisture Restricted To The Gulf Of Mexico.

For That Reason...Thunderstorm Activity Is Not Expected Across The Conus Monday And Monday Night.

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Tue Dec 17 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Dry Pattern Will Persist With A Mean Trough Across The Ern States
And A Ridge Across The W...Though A Weak Upper Low Is Forecast To Move Into Cntrl Ca By Wed Morning.

This Pattern Will Maintain High Pressure At The Surface With No Instability For Thunderstorms.

While A Sporadic Lightning Strike Could Occur With Shallow Lake
Effect Convection Near The Ern Shores Of All Five Great Lakes... Potential Is Too Low For Any Thunder Areas.

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Dec 18-22 Convective Outlook

The Pattern Will Become Temporarily Zonal On Wed/D4 As A Shortwave Trough Exits The Nern U.S. And An Ern Pacific Jet Max Dives Sewd Along The W Coast On The Back Side Of An Amplifying Upper Trough.

This Trough Is Forecast To Shift Rapidly Swd On Thur/D5 With Upper
Low Over Nrn Baja Ca By Fri Morning.

Preceding This Trough Will Be Increasing Swly Low Level Flow Across The Srn Plains Into The Oh Valley...Where Moisture Advection Will Result In Elevated Non-Severe Thunderstorms Thur Night Into Fri Morning Into The Mid Ms/Lower Oh Valleys.

Predictability Dwindles With Time Regarding The Movement Of The Swrn Upper Low/Trough.

Though Mid 60s F Boundary Layer Dewpoints Will Exist Across The Warm Sector Into The Srn Plains...Any Severe Threat Will Be Marginal In The D5-D6 Time Frame Courtesy Of A Surging Cold Front Associated With An Increasingly Confluent Flow Regime Aloft.

Greater Severe Potential Could Exist D7-D8 Across The Lower To Mid
Ms Valley As Indicated By Some Ecmwf Members...But Predictability
For This Event Is Quite Low At This Time.


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