Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 21

Sat Dec 14 Convective Outlook
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Parts Of Ern Ga...Ern Sc And Srn Nc...

A Few Changes Have Been Made...

The First Is To Remove The Slight Risk Area Across The Fl Panhandle And Sw Ga Where The Severe Threat Is Becoming More Marginal This Afternoon.

Low-Level Moisture Is Increasing Across Ern Ga And Ern Sc Where Sfc Dewpoints Are Now In The Lower To Mid 60s F.

This Low-Level Moisture Is Contributing To Low-Lcl Heights And Allowing Instability To Increase. In Addition...Objective Analysis Shows A 40-55 Kt Low-Level Jet Moving Newd Into Sc. This Feature Will Enhance Low-Level Shear Enough For Rotating Storms Later This Afternoon.

As The Line Currently In Cntrl Ga Moves Into Ern Ga And Ern Sc Later
This Afternoon...An Isolated Tornado Threat May Develop.

A Threat For Damaging Wind Gusts Will Also Be Possible With Bowing Line-Segments Embedded In The Line As The Line Moves Into Increasing Low-Level Moisture.

For This Reason...Have Added A Narrow Slight Risk Area To Include Savannah Ga Newd To Near Wilmington Nc.

The Other Change To The Outlook Is To Remove The Thunder Area From Parts Of Se La...Srn Ms And Scntrl Al.


Sun Dec 15 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Extending From The Wrn Great Lakes Swd Across The Oh And Tn Valleys Will Move Ewd Into The Appalachian Mtns On Sunday.

At The Sfc...A Cold Front Will Advance Quickly Swd Across Cntrl Into Srn Fl Sunday Afternoon.

Model Forecasts Show Moderate Instability Ahead Of The Front But Quickly Stabilize The Airmass From North To South Around Midday Due To The Dry Air Behind The Front.

A Few Thunderstorms May Develop Along The Boundary But Weakening Low-Level Convergence...A Lack Of Large-Scale Ascent And Decreasing Low-Level Wind Speeds Should Limit The Potential For Severe Storms.

Elsewhere Across The Conus...Thunderstorms Are Not Expected Sunday And Sunday Night.


Mon Dec 16 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Broad Long Wave Trough Over The Ern Us Will Retrograde Wwd As An Upstream Short Wave Trough Moves Sewd Across The Great Lakes.

Preceding Cold Front Will Have Moved Swd Into The Fl Straits And The
Srn Gulf Of Mexico By 16/12z With A Stable Air Mass In Its Wake
Across The Conus.

This Is Expected To Preclude Development Of Organized Thunderstorm Activity During The Period.


Dec 17-21 Convective Outlook

Consensus Model Guidance Indicates The Large Scale Flow Pattern Will Undergo A Major Change Beginning On Day 5/Wed As A Strong Upper Trough Digs Swd Along The Pacific Coast And Closes Off Into A Low Over Srn Ca By Day 6/Thu.

This Will Result In Swly Flow Aloft Becoming Established Across Much Of The Conus With Surface Pressure Falls Developing Over The Plains.

Subsequent Pattern Evolution Becomes Increasingly Uncertain... However...With The Gfs And Ecmwf Deterministic Runs Exhibiting Little Run-To-Run Continuity Over The Past 24 Hrs Which Is Also Reflected By The Increasing Spread In Their Respective Ensemble System Members.

More Recent Model Runs Also Show Forecasts Of The Upper Air And Surface Systems Trending Generally Farther West With Time And Substantial Variability In The Placement Of Synoptic Scale Features.

Although It Appears That Gulf Moisture Will Begin Returning Nwd Into Parts Of The Srn Plains/Lower Ms Valley During The Day 6-8 Period /Thu-Sat/ With A Resultant Increase In Thunderstorm Potential...Low Predictability In The Synoptic Pattern Evolution Will Preclude Introduction Of A Regional Severe Threat Area At This Time.

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