Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 19

Thu Dec 12 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Southwestern U.S...

Models Indicate That A Significant Short Wave Trough...Now Approaching The Northern Pacific Coast...Will Gradually Progress
Inland Later Today And Tonight.

This Feature Is Forecast To Split Into A Couple Of Smaller Scale Impulses...With The Southern Portion Digging Toward The Lower Colorado Valley...Contributing To The Eastward Acceleration Of The Closed Low Now Centered Near The Southern California Coast.

Mid-Level Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion Associated With This
Latter Feature Has Been Contributing To Thunderstorm Activity Across
Southeastern California During The Last Few Hours...Where Moisture
Return Above A Dry And Stable Near Surface Layer...But Beneath
Relatively Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates...Is Contributing To Weak

As Another In A Series Of Perturbations Migrates Around The Eastern Periphery Of The Mid-Level Cyclonic Circulation This Afternoon And Evening...The Risk For Additional Thunderstorm Activity Is Expected To Accompany The Eastward Development Of Large-Scale Ascent Across Parts Of Central And Southern Arizona.

Highest Probabilities Appear To Exist Along The Mogollon Rim... Where Synoptic Lift Will Be Enhanced By Orographic Forcing.


Fri Dec 13 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To Move Quickly Ewd Into The Srn
Plains On Friday. Ahead Of The System...A Low-Level Jet Is Forecast To Strengthen Across The Srn Plains Friday Afternoon.

In Spite Of This...Low-Level Moisture Return Should Be Confined To The Tx Coastal Plains.

Further North Across North Tx And Srn Ok...Forecast Soundings Late Friday Afternoon Show Instability In The 700 To 500 Mb Layer Where Mucape Could Approach 500 J/Kg. This Combined With Strong Forcing Just Ahead Of The Shortwave Trough May Support Isolated Thunderstorm Development.

Due To Limited Moisture And Weak Instability...A Severe Threat Is Not Expected In The Srn Plains Friday Or Friday Night.


Sat Dec 14 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Cntrl/Ern Gulf Coast...

Nrn Baja Short-Wave Trough Is Expected To Translate Across The Swrn U.S. Into The Lower Ms Valley By 13/12z.

This Feature Will Then Eject Toward The Middle Atlantic As Another Upstream Short-Wave Digs Toward La/Ms Late In The Period.

While Lead Short-Wave Will Encourage More Favorable Low Level Trajectories For Moisture To Return Inland...Modified Boundary Layer Moisture And Weak Lapse Rates Are Expected To Limit Buoyancy Across The Ern Gulf Coast Through The Period.

Nam Forecast Soundings Are Notably More Unstable Than The Gfs Across This Region Primarily Due To Higher Sfc Moisture Content With Dew Points In The Upper 60s.

It/s Not Entirely Clear How Far Inland Meaningful Dew Points Will Advance And For This Reason Have Opted To Maintain Severe Probs Less Than 5 Percent.

If Dew Points Manage To Rise Into The Upper 60s To Near 70...As Indicated By The Nam...Then Sufficient Instability May Reside Across Srn Ms/Fl Panhandle For A Few Supercells As Strong Deep Layer Shear Will Be Present In Association With Aforementioned Short-Wave.


Dec 15-19 Convective Outlook

Upper Troughing Will Dominate The Ern U.S. During The Early-Mid Part Of Next Week.

Much Of The Ern Conus Is Expected To Experience Stable Offshore Flow That Will Preclude Thunderstorm Development.

Although A Few Thunderstorms Could Be Noted On Sunday Across The Cntrl/Srn Fl Peninsula Ahead Of A Cold Front...Large Scale Forcing Will Have Shifted Into Srn New England And The Prospect For
Organized Severe Thunderstorms Is Low This Period.

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