Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 15

Sun Dec 8 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Strong Jet Core Aloft Will Persist From The Srn Plains To The
Lower Great Lakes...Immediately Downstream From The Large-Scale
Trough Over The Rockies And Plains.

At The Surface...An Arctic Front Has Been Weakening Slowly And Is Now Drifting Nwd Across The Continental Shelf Waters Of The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico.

Elevated Convection Is Ongoing Within A Belt Of Waa Above The Frontal Surface From La To The Tn Valley...Which Is Being Fed By A Moisture Plume Emanating From The Bay Of Campeche. 12z Soundings Show Mucape Of 250-750 J/Kg Rooted Near 850 Mb... Which Will Continue To Support The Risk For A Few Thunderstorms Along The Same Corridor Through The Outlook Period.


Mon Dec 9 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Broad Belt Of Strong Mid/Upper Level Wswly Flow Across Srn/Sern
1/3rd Of The Conus Will Continue To Reside On The Poleward Side Of A Deep-Layer Frontal Zone Situated From The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico To The Southeast U.S. Coast.

The Large Scale Pattern Will Continue To Support A Cold And Mostly Dry Airmass From The West Coast Across The Rockies To The Midwest/Oh Valley.

Weak To Modest Sloped Ascent Across The Gulf Coast/Southeast Front Will Persist In Response To Proximity Of Right Entrance Region Of Potent Mid/Upper Level Jet Core From The Middle Ms Valley Across The Cntrl Appalachians.

Filaments Of Relatively Greater Buoyancy Emanating From Moist Maritime Tropical Airmass Across The Gulf Could Support Weak And Sporadic Tstms Near The Frontal Zone From The Nrn Gulf Coast To Carolinas On Monday.

Lack Of More Substantial Instability And Meager Forcing Should Keep Tstm Activity Short-Lived And A 10 Percent General Tstm Area Does Not Appear Warranted With This Update.


Tue Dec 10 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Overall Progression Of Large-Scale Central U.S. Upper Troughing Is
Progged To Slow This Period...As One Smaller-Scale/Embedded Trough Ejects Quickly Enewd Across The Northeast While A Second Digs Ssewd Out Of The Canadian Prairie Into The Central Conus.

As The Aforementioned Short-Wave Trough Ejects Across The Northeast States...Low-Level Continental Polar Air Will Continue Making Progress Across The Southeast...With The Front At The Leading Edge Of The Cool Surge Lingering Only Across The Fl Peninsula By The End Of The Period.

While Low-Topped/Weak Convection Will Likely Accompany The Front As It Progresses Across The Southeast...Little Lightning Potential Is
Evident Attm Given What Should Prove To Be No More Than Meager/ Shallow Buoyancy.


Dec 11-15 Convective Outlook

Medium-Range Models In General/Broad Agreement Through Day 6 /Fri. 12-13/..Moving A Large Trough Across The Ern U.S. And Then
Offshore...While A Weaker/Srn-Stream Trough Moves Into/Across The
Swrn Quarter Of The Country.

During This Time Period...A Continental Polar Airmass Prevailing E Of The Rockies Will Largely Hinder Potential For Deeper Convection Over The Conus.

From Day 6 Onward...Models Diverge With Respect To Evolution Of The Upper Pattern...And Resulting Decrease In Confidence With Time
Precludes Any Meaningful Attempt At A Convective Forecast Through
The End Of The Period.

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