Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Isolated to scattered convection will diminish quickly after sunset
tonight as mesoscale forcing decreases and the atmosphere
Some fog is possible across the area late tonight with a similar airmass in place as last night along with light winds.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s are expected.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
the large scale amplified pattern is highlighted by a trough over Wrn and ridge over Ern states.
At the surface... persistent high off Carolina Coast with ridge WSW across Gulf region providing for sultry S/SE flow.
Area PWATs around 1.20 inches.
This will generate a weak Panhandle seabreeze front that should
yield low scattered storms beginning around midday mainly across
NW third of CWA closest to trough.
Will go with 30-0% NW-SE aftn and 20-10% eve POP gradient.
Inland High from upper 80s west to around 90 east.
Seabreeze will temper coastal highs...closer to 80 degrees.
Lows in mid 60s with some fog development a good bet late.
Upstream trough will slowly pivot Ewd but impeded by building ridge.
At surface...ridge will remain over region and Panhandle seabreeze will again generate a small chc of aftn precip..albeit under increasing subsidence...less coverage and intensity than on Mon.
Next local weather maker...cold front develops over Plains moves east reaching VCNTY MS River by sundown.
20-10% POPs with highs around 80 at the coast...near 90 inland and
lows in the mid 60s. Fog is again possible late.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
the period commences highly amplified with ridging over Wrn states and extreme Wrn Atlc with an expansive trough dominating Conus.
Trough moves slowly Ewd thru the day/night shifting downstream ridge only slowly Ewd.
At surface...ridge across SE region continues to erode and shunted ESE as upstream cold front moves Ewd located to start Wed from Ern most Great Lakes SSW bisecting TN Valley to low over NE MS thru Ern LA and into Gulf waters.
Although GFS still a tad faster...ECMWF and GFS are in noticeably better agreement than 24 hrs ago on timing of upper and lower features.
Locally flow continues to veer with PWATs increasing to around 1.6 inches.
Because of slow movement of upper systems...front also a slow mover.
By sundown Wed...front bisecting CWA with much of rain along and behind boundary.
It will only limp towards I-75 overnight and aided by seabreeze front bring convection to the area into Thurs especially Ern counties.
With impressive trough enhancing front..cannot discount strong storms plus slow mover can favor locally heavy rain.
By Thurs aftn...
upper trough axis begins to move Ewd to over SE region with slow advancement to off the coast thru weekend.
Front limps E/SE of CWA by Thurs eve with high pressure building in
resulting in drier and cooler conditions with lower humidity thru
Will go with W-E 50-30% POP gradient on Wed...40-30% W-E Wed
night...20-40% W-E Thurs then wdly sct or below rest of the period.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s on Wed..then under
clouds and rain drop into the upper 70s to low 80s on Thurs before
inching up to 80 to 85 Fri thru Sun.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the afternoon with just a low coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms around the area.
Some patchy fog is possible across the area again late tonight with MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
VFR conditions are expected after any fog lift by mid-morning Monday.
Southeast winds will prevail through mid-week with nocturnal east / southeasterly surges in winds/seas.
Expect a late season cold front crossing late Wed into early Thurs that will turn winds out of the north to finish the week.
Cautionary conditions will be likely on Thurs into Fri with borderline advisory levels offshore.
Red flag conditions are unlikely this week, although drier air will
arrive for Friday and Saturday.
Only a few points along the lower Suwannee River remain in flood
this morning, with a continued downward trend in all river levels
The only possible exception will be along the Choctawhatchee and Chipola rivers as 1 to 3 inches of rain fell across Geneva and Houston counties in Alabama Saturday.
A slight bump was noted on the Choctawhatchee near Geneva, with some effect already being felt near Pittman in Florida.
It is likely that this rain will only result in a period of steadying river levels as it gets routed down the aforementioned rivers, though a slight increase may be possible over the next day or so.
Regardless, a return to flood stage is not expected at any point along these rivers.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 65 89 66 89 64 / 20 20 10 10 10
Panama City 70 81 70 82 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
Dothan 66 88 67 89 65 / 20 30 20 20 10
Albany 67 88 65 89 64 / 20 30 20 10 10
Valdosta 65 92 65 91 63 / 20 10 10 0 0
Cross City 65 90 65 90 63 / 20 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 71 81 71 82 69 / 10 10 0 0 10
High Rip Current Risk thru tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton.