Near Term [Through Today]...
We have adjusted PoPs and QPF upward across our western zones.
Regional radars show a persistent and slow moving band of locally
heavy showers along a surface trough that is inching toward our
There is not too much model consensus yet on whether this will survive long enough to produce a flooding threat in our forecast area.
However, a few of the newer CAMs are showing some higher rainfall totals.
We are still not ready to accept some of the extreme numbers, but felt the update was justified based on radar trends and some of the newer model data.
Stay tuned for later updates, especially for Walton and Bay Counties.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
By this evening, the northern stream flow will have separated from
the southern stream, where they had been previously conjoined
along the western and north-central Gulf coast.
The remaining upper-level shortwave will continue its weakening trend as it is gradually destroyed by the northeast moving MCV generated from this morning`s convection along the Texas/Mexico border.
Locally, any convection remaining will be on a weakening trend with the loss of synoptic support and afternoon heating.
On Sunday, expect what remains of the aforementioned shortwave to drift over the Tri-State region.
This will likely combine with some form of disturbed sea breeze front to provide us with a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms, though storms should remain fairly scattered about in nature.
Scattered storms will be possible again on Monday, though coverage should be less than on Sunday and remain confined to mostly the Atlantic sea breeze front, and more isolated along the Panhandle sea breeze front.
Expect afternoon highs both afternoons in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with Monday being the warmest.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The early part of next week should bring generally fair weather as our forecast area remains under the influence of the Bermuda high to our east.
There is a minimal chance of a few diurnal showers Monday and Tuesday as as low level flow becomes more southerly and advects
moisture into the region.
A weak and very diffuse front will move across the area mid-week as as a broad upper level trough pushes very slowly across the eastern U.S.
This will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms but looks to be rather anemic with respect to instability and precipitation amounts.
By Thursday and Friday high pressure will build in again with dry conditions and lower humidity.
Temperatures will be several degrees above normal at the beginning
of the week with readings around 90 inland, dropping closer to
mid-May normals in the mid 80s by the end of the week.
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread the region after 08z and
will persist through most of the day at DHN, ECP and TLH.
Elsewhere, ceilings will improve to VFR after 14z.
IFR was only included for a brief period predawn at ECP.
Scattered convection will be possible today at all terminals, but the likelihood was too low to specifically include this in the TAF at VLD.
Greater chances exist at DHN and ECP than further east.
Sub cautionary southeasterly winds will prevail for the next several days with seas in the 2 to 4 foot range, highest west of Apalachicola.
Hazardous marine conditions are not expected through early next week.
Conditions will remain moist over the weekend.
Somewhat drier air will return for the work week, but RH will remain well above critical values and red flag criteria are not anticipated.
All area rivers will continue their downward trend over the next
Only the lower Suwannee remains in flood as of this morning.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 84 65 87 67 88 / 30 20 10 10 10
Panama City 80 70 79 71 81 / 60 30 10 0 10
Dothan 83 64 86 66 87 / 50 30 30 10 20
Albany 85 63 86 65 88 / 30 30 30 20 30
Valdosta 85 66 90 68 91 / 20 10 40 20 30
Cross City 86 66 86 64 89 / 10 10 30 20 10
Apalachicola 80 71 80 73 80 / 30 20 10 0 10
High Rip Current Risk thru tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton.