NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
827 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The severe weather threat has ended across the area for the night.
The main focus for the rest of the night will be on heavy rainfall and potential flooding.
Rainfall so far today has averaged between 2 and 4 inches from Leon county westward with a few localized amounts over 4 inches across portions of Gulf, Liberty, and Calhoun counties.
The axis of heaviest rainfall currently stretches from Lafayette county southwest to Franklin county.
Hi-res guidance indicates that this band will only move slowly during
the night, so the flash flood watch will continue in these areas with the potential for an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts around 5 inches.
Farther to the west, although light to moderate rain will continue through the night, feel the threat of rain heavy enough to cause flash flooding has diminished, so we trimmed back the watch to the west and north.
Overall, few other changes were made.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The upper level trough will continue to swing along the Gulf coast
states Monday and Monday night before ejecting NEward off to the
This will mean continued light to moderate rain Monday and Monday night, exiting our eastern counties by Tuesday morning.
Another shortwave will swing across the Ern CONUS Tuesday and Tuesday night, but will be less amplified and keep well to our north.
With heavy cloud cover and rain in place, highs will stay in the upper 60s Monday, upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday.
Lows will be in the upper 40s-low 50s Monday night, mid 40s Tuesday night.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Shortwave impulses will continue to propagate through the upper
level pattern through the long term period, but will stay too far north of us to enhance rainfall in the southeast again until the weekend.
Temperatures will be near normal, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Friday night, a Srn stream shortwave impulse will move across Nrn
Mexico with a Nrn stream shortwave impulse over the Great Lakes.
This will enhance divergence aloft enough for a surface low to
develop over the Ohio valley and develop a cold front that extends
SWward to the Arklatex region, crossing our forecast area
Rain with some thunder will linger overnight.
LIFR conditions will dominate overnight into the morning hours.
By late morning ceilings will improve to MVFR and rain will become
Winds will be light and variable.
Winds and seas will remain elevated at advisory level this evening
with a slow moving squall line.
Winds are expected to fall below advisory levels by around midnight, and below exercise caution levels Monday evening, remaining below headline criteria for the rest of the period.
Widespread wetting rains will limit fire weather potential for the next few days.
Red flag conditions are not expected.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Florida panhandle counties east of US 231 through Monday afternoon.
Widespread rainfall accumulations with this system are expected to
range from 2-4 inches across the CWA.
Some isolated heavier amounts of 4-6 inches are possible in east of US 231 in northwest Florida.
Several locations along the Ochlockonee remain in action stage and
are forecast to rise through mid week, but remain below initial flood
The St. Marks river at Newport is forecast to crest near moderate flood stage later in the week.
Heavier rainfall totals of 4-6 inches may cause localized flooding in already swollen streams and at creeks across the coverage area.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 60 69 52 73 46 / 100 80 50 20 10
Panama City 59 68 51 66 50 / 100 70 40 10 10
Dothan 56 67 48 71 46 / 100 70 40 10 10
Albany 56 67 50 68 45 / 100 70 50 20 10
Valdosta 60 67 54 72 46 / 100 80 60 40 10
Cross City 66 71 55 74 47 / 100 90 70 30 10
Apalachicola 62 68 52 65 49 / 100 80 50 20 10
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Coastal Dixie- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Liberty-Madison.
High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.