Near Term [Tonight]...
Only a slight chance of a shower or TSTM for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening.
Any convection that develops will move from north to south.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The large scale regional pattern will continue to be dominated by deep layer ridging, although ridge will weaken with axis retrograding gradually west of CWA.
At surface, ridge over Gulf region will also weaken as high over N/Cntrl Gulf drifts Wwd.
Main low level feature becomes low around 230 miles east of St Augustine Sun aftn and drifting SSW.
NHC indicates that conditions are expected to become much more favorable for tropical development as low meanders off east central FL coast.
There is now a 60% chance of a tropical depression thru 48hrs and a 80% chance of tropical formation thru the 5 day period.
Local area to remain on a subsident side of system.
This could keep maintain a NLY steering flow and keep the sea-breeze pinned closer to the coastline in the western part of our area, with a greater influence from the Atlantic sea breeze in our eastern zones late in the afternoon and into the evening especially on Tues.
Given retreating upper ridge and position of coastal low, it should also
keep slightly higher mid-upper level moisture, more clouds, an uptick in winds and somewhat less hot temperatures over the ERN parts of our area.
Will go with 10-30% SW-NE POPs on Mon and 20-30% W-E POPs on Tues.
High temperatures in the sunnier, drier areas each day could easily hit the upper 90s with 850mb temperatures remaining stable around +19C to +20C.
The highs in the areas that see more or earlier convective development would be more likely to be in the low-mid 90s.
It appears heat indices especially Wrn counties, may get into the 100-104 degree range or just short of our Heat Advisory criteria.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The period begins with Gulf ridging weakening/retrograding in
response to Nrn stream longwave trough moving Ewd into east half
Trough progressively deepens SEWD thru Fri further weakening ridge.
Then, it lifts ENE of CWA and ridge begins to restrengthen.
At surface, high over NW Gulf continues to weaken on Wed.
As upper trough sweeps ENE, surface low (likely still a tropical system) has lifted NEWD to off JAX Coast with trough extending Swwd into Gulf waters.
Models maintain differences with NAM and somewhat weaker ECMWF maintaining a closed low while GFS holds a weak broad low or trough.
By Thurs low has exited further NE with local return to a more normal onshore flow.
For now any tropical local impacts should be minimal focused on some wind increase for Ern counties.
In fact, position of low should continue to suppress local convection that would otherwise be ignited by upper trough.
By Sat into Sun, deep layer high pressure rebuilds into local region with shallow seabreeze convection the main rain producer.
Will go with 30-40% thru the period, highest Thurs and Fri.
Period will commence quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 90s
with a few spots approaching 100 degrees Wed and Thurs then low to
mid 90s Fri thru Sun.
Lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
VFR conditions are expected across the region through the period, outside of any thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms will be isolated this afternoon and evening, and too unlikely to include in this TAF package.
Winds will be light.
Winds may approach SCEC criteria tonight over offshore waters
east of Apalachicola.
Otherwise, an extended period of WLY winds less than 15 knots is expected, with seas generally 2 feet or less.
A dry pattern will persist through Monday.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the rest of the week.
Although heavy rain is almost always possible during the summer months, we expect any heavy rain to be very localized and unlikely to significantly affect local river stages.
All rivers are currently well below flood stage.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 73 98 73 96 74 / 20 20 20 30 20
Panama City 78 93 78 93 78 / 10 20 10 30 20
Dothan 74 97 73 98 73 / 20 20 10 20 20
Albany 73 98 73 98 73 / 20 20 20 30 20
Valdosta 72 98 71 97 73 / 20 30 20 30 20
Cross City 72 95 71 93 73 / 20 30 20 30 30
Apalachicola 76 93 78 92 79 / 10 20 10 30 20