NEAR TERM [Remainder of Today & Tonight]...
The cold front that barely limped into Tallahassee Saturday evening
was propagating northward as a warm front at 18 UTC, and was roughly along the FL state line. South of this front there has been enough clearing for temperatures to be well above average- generally in the upper 70s to near 80.
Along and north of the front the region was enshrouded in low clouds, and temperatures were in the mid 60s to around 70. Although it`s difficult to tell on satellite imagery and through our sparse observation points in the Gulf of Mexico, there was a band of fog/low stratus from Destin east-southeastward to just offshore St George Island.
The warm front will stall just northwest of our region tonight, placing the entire forecast area in an unusually warm and humid airmass.
This usually means widespread, dense fog, and the majority of our statistical, dynamical, and consensus numerical guidance is forecasting a high probability of dense fog.
It may begin as early as sunset near the coast, but by midnight or so much of our forecast area will likely have fog and low clouds.
The PoP is low...just 20% north of Dothan and Albany where some light rain is possible closer to the frontal system.
Low temperatures will be in the 60s, which is far above average for this time of year.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The surface front will make a slow progression through the forecast
area early this week, making it into southeast Alabama again Monday
before stalling out Monday night.
As another shortwave trough propagates through the main upper level trough, the front is forecast to finally push through the rest of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Rain chances Monday and Monday night will remain highest for our northwest zones and head eastward Tuesday, lowering Tuesday night.
The break will be brief however, with both the GFS and Euro showing some northward regression of the system, returning it once again as a warm front on Wednesday.
Temperatures on the warm side of the front will remain unseasonably
(possibly once again record breaking) warm, with highs in the low
80s again on Monday, upper 70s to around 80 on Tuesday.
The front will reach southeast Alabama fairly late Monday, so the highs will still be in the upper 70s, and warm for December. By Tuesday however, temperatures behind the front will be noticeably cooler, with highs in the 60s. Lows will be in the 60s on Monday night and in the mid 40s to mid 50s Tuesday night.
LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The surface cold front that passes through Tuesday and Tuesday night will make some northward regression Wednesday, increasing rain chances once again during the day, then exiting Wednesday night.
Despite the return as a warm front, temperatures Wednesday will stay
generally in the 60s with the heavy cloud cover and rain anticipated. Once it passes Wednesday night, temperatures will begin dipping into the 40s as the colder, drier air makes its way here.
Thursday and Friday will be cooler and drier with highs ranging from
the upper 50s to upper 60s Thursday, dipping into the mid 30s to
mid 40s overnight. Friday, highs will be in the 60s and lows will be
in the low 40s to around 50.
The dry break should end Saturday however, as another shortwave trough propagates through the upper level flow and aids in surface cyclogenesis over south TX on Thursday.
This system will move eastward late this week, increasing our rain chances to 40-50% Saturday and Sunday.
VFR conditions have broken out at KTLH and KECP, while periods of MVFR cigs will likely persist at the other terminals for the remainder of this afternoon.
We expect widespread dense fog and low cigs to develop overnight and last until late morning Monday.
Conditions will deteriorate between 03 and 06 UTC at most terminals, with some sites falling below local landing minimums.
Cigs will slowly climb to MVFR levels by early afternoon Monday.
Marine fog along the coastline will remain a concern today through Monday morning.
Winds will generally stay below 15 knots through Tuesday.
As the front makes eastward progress Tuesday night and high pressure moves in behind it, winds and waves will begin building to cautionary levels Tuesday night through Wednesday, possibly reaching advisory levels Wednesday night through Friday.
Dispersion values may exceed 75 Monday afternoon.
Otherwise, no fire weather concerns are expected through Tuesday.
Despite chances of rain through most of the week, particularly for our northwestern zones, rainfall amounts will be low enough that no significant rises in river heights are expected.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 62 81 63 76 53 / 10 20 20 40 30
Panama City 65 75 66 70 52 / 10 20 20 40 20
Dothan 61 77 61 65 46 / 10 40 40 50 20
Albany 59 78 63 69 47 / 10 30 30 50 20
Valdosta 62 83 63 78 52 / 10 10 20 50 30
Cross City 63 81 59 80 56 / 10 10 10 20 30
Apalachicola 64 76 66 74 56 / 10 20 20 40 20
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM.