NEAR TERM [through This Afternoon]...
A sharp cold front, separating a very warm airmass to the southeast
from the much colder airmass to the northwest, currently stretches
from Destin to Dothan to Americus.
Temperatures ahead of the front remain in the lower 70s, with upper 40s to lower 50s in its wake.
This boundary will continue to press slowly southeastward through
the day today.
As the upper trough in place over the western states reloads and
the ridge over South Florida rebuilds today, the progress of the
front will slow until it stalls late this afternoon somewhere near
a Tallahassee to Tifton line.
With the front bisecting the forecast area, expect to see close to a 30 degree range in temperatures this afternoon, with highs near 80 over the southeastern Big Bend and near steady temperatures in the lower to mid 50s in SE Alabama.
The trickiest temperature forecast will be right along the front, and be largely dependent on exactly where the boundary stalls this afternoon. Just ahead of the front, expect highs to be in the lower 70s, with lower 60s just a few miles to the west.
As for rainfall, weak isentropic lift over the shallow post-frontal airmass will continue to generate isolated to scattered showers through much of the day.
Best chances will be right along and behind the front.
With little large-scale forcing, the rainfall will be mostly light.
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
Water vapor loops this morning show a strong jet stream arcing
from Baja California to the Northeast US, centered well northwest
of our area.
This flow pattern should continue into Monday with the core of the jet (160+ knots at 250mb) redeveloping north of the Ohio River Valley.
The southwesterly flow aloft should prevent any major changes over the area, with the aforementioned cold front stalling and quickly losing its definition tonight.
A front redevelops by Sunday Night northwest of our area, with precip
generally occurring NW of the surface front (being forced by some
increasing isentropic ascent).
With the strongest QG forcing situated well northwest of our area, and the surface front also expected to redevelop northwest, our expectations are for only light and scattered rain chances during this period.
PoPs were trimmed slightly but not totally removed as models do show periodic light QPF.
Pressure falls to the northwest should create S-SE flow at the surface Sunday. This should keep the abundant low-level moisture in place, with continued concerns for overnight and morning fog and low stratus.
We included some fog again tonight, but confidence was not high enough yet to include for Sunday Night as well.
The warm, moist air mass should keep temperatures above normal throughout the period.
LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]...
The period starts with a strong cold front moving into the area.
There is some disagreement between the EURO and GFS as to the
timing of the front. The EURO shows the front approaching our
area on Monday evening with a gradual passage by Tuesday Night or
Wednesday morning. The GFS is bringing the front through about
12 hours earlier and quickly exiting the area.
Cooler and drier air will move in. Wednesday will be the coolest day before temps begin to edge up. Thurs will be the driest day with PWATs down to bone dry 0.20 inches.
On Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Wednesday`s lows will range from upper 30s in NW Alabama to low 50s in the FL Big Bend.
Temperatures remain cool through Friday with mid 40s at night and upper 60s during the day.
Low clouds and fog are contributing to IFR conditions at all terminals early this morning.
A front will cross KDHN, KABY, and KECP this morning, generating a few showers and ushering in light northwesterly flow.
Visibility and CIGS will slowly improve this morning, but will likely remain MVFR or worse through the forecast period at all terminals.
The latest guidance came in with slightly lower wind speeds over
the next few days over the coastal waters, which means we are no
longer explicitly forecasting SCEC winds.
Only about 20% of the model guidance shows 15 knot winds over the western waters later this afternoon and this evening.
The cold front pushing into the area today will stall and become poorly defined, with winds becoming easterly overnight.
These will veer to the south by Monday, with a better chance of SCEC (and perhaps advisory level) winds with another cold front Monday Night or Tuesday.
Low level moisture will remain plentiful across the region into early next week, with no fire weather concerns.
Total rainfall amounts over the next 5 days should range from roughly an inch northwest of Dothan to less a quarter inch over the southeastern half of the HSA.
This will have only minimal impacts on area rivers and streams.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 58 80 62 79 / 30 20 10 20 30
Panama City 66 58 74 66 75 / 40 20 10 20 30
Dothan 59 52 74 64 75 / 40 20 20 30 40
Albany 66 55 75 62 77 / 40 30 20 30 40
Valdosta 75 60 81 62 81 / 30 20 10 20 20
Cross City 77 59 80 60 80 / 20 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 72 61 73 64 75 / 30 10 10 20 30
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Liberty-Madison.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Brooks-
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for coastal
waters out to 60 NM from Apalachicola to Suwannee River.