NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Cold front will cross the area overnight.
Severe threat should diminish by late this afternoon as the cold front enters the forecast area and the main convective complex begins to ingest more stable air from Apalachee Bay.
During the evening hours, the heaviest rain should be focused on the eastern half of the area (ahead of the front).
An area of light rain is expected to develop behind the front as another impulse rounds the base of the mean trough.
This post-frontal precip should begin to diminish from west to east by late tonight.
Temperatures will fall behind the front as cold air advection kicks in after 06Z, with lows reaching the lower 40s in southeast Alabama by sunrise.
SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday Night]...
Models are in good agreement that the bulk of boundary layer CAA
behind this cold front will occur during the day (12-00z) on Sunday.
This should keep temperatures quite cool, with highs in the 50s in many locations.
The high temperatures in the eastern Florida Big Bend may actually occur in the early to mid morning.
Although rain showers are likely to exit the SE part of our area quickly in the morning, some low stratus may linger per model RH cross sections and soundings.
High pressure then builds east into the area from Sunday Night
through Monday Night.
There looks to be enough of a surface pressure gradient on Sunday Night to keep at least a few knots of wind through the night. Therefore, we weighted in a bit more raw model guidance for the low temperatures that night.
Lows should still be in the mid-30s with wind chills dipping close to 30.
The high will be centered more or less right over our area on Monday Night so air temperatures should be colder, and a light freeze is possible in some areas.
Analogs from SLU-CIPS are much more favorable for a freeze than MOS guidance, indicating a 70-80% chance of a freeze over most of our area.
We nudged temperatures down to the lower end of the guidance envelope for now.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
High pressure will dominate for most of the extended period with
drier air and moderating temperatures.
Once the high moves off to the northeast Friday, onshore flow will return resulting in a slight chance of showers.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact area terminals through the evening hours.
By late in the evening and overnight, the rain will diminish.
However, low CIGS will persist a while longer, before clearing from west to east during the morning hours.
VFR conditions should be in place by early afternoon at all terminals.
Winds will shift to the northwest overnight behind the cold front, likely exceeding 20 knots west of Apalachicola after 05z.
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for those areas, and a SCEC
headline will be maintained east.
Winds will continue to veer to the north on Sunday at SCEC levels before gradually diminishing as high pressure builds in.
Drier air will move into the region on Snday into early next week, in the wake of tonight`s frontal passage.
However, humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns expected.
Total QPF amounts across the FL Big Bend and Eastern portions of
our GA counties will average 2 to 2.5 inches with localized amounts of four to five inches.
Elsewhere amounts will generally be in the 1 to 2 inch range, with the lowest amounts across SE AL.
This rainfall amount will cause some area rivers to rise and some may approach minor flood stage.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 54 58 34 60 31 / 80 20 0 0 0
Panama City 52 57 38 59 39 / 70 10 0 0 0
Dothan 45 53 33 59 34 / 60 10 0 0 0
Albany 49 56 33 60 32 / 70 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 55 59 35 60 32 / 90 30 0 0 0
Cross City 60 65 38 62 32 / 90 60 0 0 0
Apalachicola 57 62 40 59 39 / 80 20 0 0 0
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 60 NM.