Short Term Weather

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...
TODAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TN VALLEY...AND THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN THE LOW PASSING TO
OUR NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN
AND LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WEST/SW
WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AL/GA...ARRIVING AT KDHN AND KABY
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH
OUR AREA LOCATED WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST SPOTS...HOWEVER LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WILL BE HELD IN THE MID/UPPER 50S DUE TO WINDS
OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLIP QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. ONCE
AGAIN THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. AREAS NORTH
OF DOTHAN AND ALBANY MAY APPROACH 32 BY SUNRISE...BUT A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF TO OUR
NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH WITH THE HIGH...HOWEVER...OUR TEMPS WILL BE DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY. HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND GENERALLY
UPPER 50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES WILL GET UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST AS A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS/NORTHERN
MEXICO. AS THIS IMPULSE APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. OUR AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM EXPECTED.
THE LIGHT GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES (AT LEAST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT)
WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. COLDEST TEMPS
IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CLEAR.

SUNDAY...POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES EAST
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
AS WELL TO A POSITION NEAR THE MS DELTA SUNDAY EVENING. STILL
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF ARRIVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY GET THINGS GOING EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN. THEREFORE
HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE/SE AL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BEGINS TO GET COMPLICATED OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES AS THIS RAIN BEGINS FALLING INTO A COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS BEING SUPPLIED FROM THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH. WITH THE WARM
FRONT HOLDING NEAR THE COAST...THE SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL CONTINUE. WET-BULBING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER
SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE 30S SUNDAY EVENING FROM DOTHAN TO ALBANY AND
NORTHWARD. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WET-BULBING DOWN TO A
BORDERLINE FREEZING RAIN PROFILE. THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
SINCE SURFACE OBJECTS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME TO EQUALIZE WITH
THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SINCE SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW HAVE
SHOWN PROFILES CLOSE TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL ADD A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RAIN NORTH OF DOTHAN AND
ALBANY SUNDAY NIGHT.


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