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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday)...A weakening Upper Level TROF will begin the extended period across the southeast U.S., as the old Upper Level Low exits northeast through southeastern Canada. At the SFC, a slowly moderating RIDGE of HIGH pressure will remain in control over our region through the weekend, with a reinforcing dry cold front expected to move through the area Sunday Night and Monday as a new shortwave digs the MEAN Upper Trof further to the south once again. There are some significant differences in AMPLITUDE between the models on the southward depth and strength of this shortwave, with the 00 UTC GFS the least amplified, the 00 UTC Canadian extremely amplified, while the earlier 12 UTC ECMWF (the recommended solution from HPC), being the median solution. These differences may have some impact on MAX Temps for Monday, and with the possibility of a steeper Trof (and thus lower heights) and some increase in clouds ahead of the cold front, the GFS derived MEX Guidance may be just a tad too warm with some lower 80s shown over parts of the interior. Therefore, will trim these back a couple of degrees. Zonal FLOW or even weak ridging is expected to return by Tuesday, allowing temps to warm back up into the lower 80s inland, which will be the first return of slightly above CLIMO temps in several days. Until then, expect the dry and unseasonably cool weather (which is rushing in behind the cold front today) to continue Fri. night through Monday morning. Low temps will be especially cool,
with upper 30s to lower 40s over the interior with mid to upper 40s
near the coast early in the period followed by a gradual moderation.
Highs will also slowly moderate from the lower 70s on Saturday, to
the mid 70s on Sunday, and then upper 70s to a few lower 80s
thereafter.


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