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Monday Long Term Forecast

By: Martha Spencer
By: Martha Spencer

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A
TROUGH OVER WRN MOST STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO
WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM
PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WITH RISING HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO
MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
APPROACHES THE AREA. BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND
ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING
RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PERIOD BEGINS WITH BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING WWD
JUST N OF LOCAL AREA WITH MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
INTO FRI. SO...FLOW AROUND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE ESE AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN SOME MOISTURE WITH
A CONTINUED DIURNAL CYCLE OF SMALL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EARLY
EVE SHALLOW EAST COAST SEABREEZE GENERATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. CHANCES
INCREASE BY SAT EVE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH AND WINDS
WEAKEN GENERATING A LESS SHALLOW SEA BREEZE. ALSO...A TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EARLY SAT
INTO MON. THE LATTER WAVE (UNDER PARENT LOW NOTED ABOVE) IN
PARTICULAR PUSHES ASSOCD MOISTURE NWWD TO BEGIN IMPACTING LOCAL
AREA BY SAT EVE. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF
THIS WAVE AS WELL AS WITH FRONT TO OUR N. BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WHICH MAY SERVE TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE. HOWEVER...WETTER GFS
WANTS TO PUSH THE WEAK OH VALLEY FRONT SWD TO APPROACH CWA BUT
DRIER MORE ACCEPTED ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS
6/7.

WILL GO WITH NIL POPS THRU FRI NIGHT...WDLY SCT TO LOW SCT ON SAT
AND LOW-MID SCT POPS SUN-SUN NIGHT. UNDER INFLUENCE OF E COAST
SEABREEZE AND TRPCL WAVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS ERN BIG
BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. WITH HIGH ALOFT AND ESE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...EXPECT HOT AND SULTRY WEATHER. BOTH MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (INLAND CLIMO IS AROUND 71/92).
DURING THURS THRU SAT...COULD SEE HIGHEST MAX TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100 WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 WITH SOME SPOTS
APPROACHING 110 DEGREES.


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