Tropical Storm Karen Latest Advisory

By: 4Warn Weather Team
By: 4Warn Weather Team

KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 90.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES...50 KM...EAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
54 MPH...86 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 90.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT... WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONSOF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 89.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS BEEN EXTENSIVELY INVESTIGATED BY AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES THIS EVENING. AT 1000 PM CDT... 0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY THOSE PLANES NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 88.5W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SOON AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.


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