Tropical Storm Bertha No Stronger...Racing Toward Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 6
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Ast Sat Aug 02 2014

...Bertha Moving Rapidly Across The Northeastern Caribbean Sea...
...Heavy Squalls Approaching Puerto Rico And The Virgin Islands...

Summary Of 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...Information
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Location...16.3n 64.9w
About 95 Mi...155 Km S Of St. Croix
About 165 Mi...265 Km Sse Of San Juan Puerto Rico
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 295 Degrees At 22 Mph...35 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1008 Mb...29.77 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of The Bahamas Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning For The Southeastern Bahamas...Including The Acklins... Crooked Island...Long Cay...The Inaguas...Mayaguana...The Ragged Islands And The Turks And Caicos Islands...And A Tropical Storm Watch For The Central Bahamas...Including Cat Island...The Exumas ... Long Island... Rum Cay...And San Salvador.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Martinique
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* The Southeastern Bahamas...Including The Acklins...Crooked Island...Long Cay...The Inaguas... Mayaguana...And The Ragged Islands * The Turks And Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* The Eastern Dominican Republic From Cabo Frances Viejo To Isla Saona
* Central Bahamas...Including Cat Island...The Exumas...Long Island ... Rum Cay...And San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within The Next 12 To 24 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 24 To 36 Hours.

Interests Elsewhere Across The Northeastern Caribbean Sea And Hispaniola Should Monitor The Progress Of This System.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Estimated Near Latitude 16.3 North...Longitude 64.9 West.

Bertha Is Racing Toward The West-Northwest Near 22 Mph...35 Km/H ... And This Motion Is Expected To Continue Today With A Gradual Turn To The Northwest On Sunday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Bertha Will Pass Near Puerto Rico Later Today...Move Near Or Over The Eastern Dominican Republic Tonight...And Approach The Southeastern Bahamas And The Turks And Caicos Islands On Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 50 Mph...85 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Bertha Remains In An Environment That Is Not Favorable For Strengthening...And Little Change In Strength Is Forecast Through Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185 Km From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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Wind...
Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In Puerto Rico And The Virgin Islands Today...And In The Southeastern Bahamas And The Turks And Caicos Islands By Early Sunday. Wind Gusts To Tropical Storm Force Could Occur In Squalls Over The Remainder Of The Leeward Islands Today. Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible In The Watch Area In The Dominican Republic By Later Today.

Rainfall...
Bertha Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Amounts Up To 5 Inches Across Portions Of The Leeward Islands...As Well As The U.S. And British Virgin Islands... Eastern Portions Of The Dominican Republic As Well As The Turks And Caicos Through Sunday Night. Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 5 Inches With Isolated Maximum Totals Of 8 Inches Are Possible Across
Puerto Rico...With The Heaviest Totals Across The Southern Portion Of The Island.

Next Advisory
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Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Am Ast.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Am Ast.

Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 6
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Ast Sat Aug 02 2014

Bertha Is A Disorganized Tropical Cyclone, But Based On Earlier Reconnaissance Aircraft Data, It Is Still Producing Winds Of 40 To 45 Knots. Satellite Data Show That The Low-Level Center Is Exposed
With Most Of The Showers And Squalls To The North And East. San Juan Puerto Rico Radar Also Shows The Circulation Associated With The Cyclone. Another Plane Will Be Investigating Bertha In A Few Hours.

The Shear Has Not Decreased, But Global Models Insist On Forecasting A Little More Conducive Upper-Level Environment In 24 Hours Or So. If The Cyclone Survives The Current Shear, And The Interaction With Puerto Rico And Hispaniola, It Could Strengthen Slightly Over The Open Atlantic As Indicated In The Nhc Forecast. In Fact, This Is The Solution Of The Ships And Hwrf Models.

Bertha Continues To Be Embedded Within A Strong Easterly Flow South Of The Subtropical Ridge, And The Cyclone Is Racing Toward The West-Northwest Of 295 Degrees At About 19 Knots.

However, In About 24 To 36 Hours, Bertha Will Reach The Southwestern Edge Of The Ridge And Will Likely Slow Down A Little. The Cyclone Will Then Move Northward And Northeastward Over The Atlantic, Steered By The Southerly Flow Between The Ridge And A Trough Over The Eastern United States. This Is The Solution Of Most Of The Dynamical Models Which Indeed Are In Pretty Good Agreement. The Nhc Forecast Follows The Multi-Model Consensus And Is Very Similar To The Previous One.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 02/0900z 16.3n 64.9w 45 Kt 50 Mph
12h 02/1800z 17.8n 67.3w 45 Kt 50 Mph
24h 03/0600z 20.0n 70.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph
36h 03/1800z 22.5n 72.3w 45 Kt 50 Mph
48h 04/0600z 25.0n 73.9w 50 Kt 60 Mph
72h 05/0600z 31.0n 72.5w 60 Kt 70 Mph
96h 06/0600z 36.0n 67.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph
120h 07/0600z 40.0n 58.0w 55 Kt 65 Mph

Forecaster Avila


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