For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize has become a little better organized over the past few hours.
However, land interaction is expected to limit significant development while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula later today and tonight.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.