Tropical Outlook Aug 23

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that the area of disturbed weather near Hispaniola still lacks a well-defined surface circulation. However, thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization and environmental conditions are favorable for the development of a tropical depression or storm today or Sunday.

This system is forecast to move west-northwestward over or near the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas on Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today.

Winds to tropical storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Central Bahamas through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning.

Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahama Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could occur with little advance notice.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brown


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