WTVY  | Dothan, AL  | News, Weather, Sports

Tropical Storm Karen Updates

By: Press Release
By: Press Release

***Karen has disintegrated into a remnant area of low pressure. We will continue to monitor rainfall potential, but most areas will pick up maybe 1-2" of rain with some higher amounts near the coast.***

Latest forecast discussion from the 4Warn Weather Team:

Some very good news to report on "Tropical Storm" Karen. All the Tropical Storm Watches have been canceled for the Emerald Coast, and Karen's track has shifted a great deal since this morning. The National Hurricane Center now says Karen will slowly move north thru tonight, pick up forward speed and turn sharply to the east by Sunday. This will put most of the heavy rain and wind potential away from SE Alabama and most of the Panhandle, and toward the coastal areas and offshore. There's still a chance to see a few showers for Sunday, but those chances are decreasing steadily with time.

WHAT TO EXPECT:
Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia-
I think it's safe to say the impacts here will be minimal. With the current track, all the heavy weather should stay south of SE AL and SW GA. But, we should prepare for at most 1-2" of rain on Sunday, well below what we were thinking before, with some breezy periods in the afternoon. The flooding threat is gone, but there's no reason not to be prepared if heavy rain moves over the area.

Alabama/Florida Coasts-
The heaviest of the rain and wind will be confined to near the coast and off the coast. Timing for the impacts once again are unclear, but we think showers/t-storms could move in Sunday morning and continue into the afternoon. Storm surge potential remains limited. Surge is expected to be 1-2 ft above normal along the Gulf Coast. This is assuming peak surge happens at a time close to high tide. Rainfall rates could total 1-3" with isolated higher amounts. This is a much better scenario for Panhandle counties that got lots of rain this year. Severe weather potential looks extremely limited as well.

Even though Karen is barely hanging on, you should still be prepared. This is a good dress rehearsal for a tropical storm or hurricane that could impact us in the future. But just in case, be ready for the chance to see power outages, and have supplies ready to get through a day or so. Please visit www.wtvy.com/weather/hurricane for more info on how to get prepared.

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KAREN STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA.

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST
FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

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KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN RAINBANDS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

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Latest forecast discussion from the 4Warn Weather Team:

At this point, I think it's fair to call Karen a "Tropical Storm". It continues to be very disorganized, with the low-level center of circulation well away from any t-storms or rain associated with it. However, a blow up of convection (rain, t-storms) was noted on satellite imagery this morning. When storms are sheared apart like this, it's difficult for any part of the storm to survive without the other, so the blow up in t-storms away from the center is somewhat of a surprise. We will continue to monitor Karen, as the center moves north, with a slow down in speed expected today. The center should be close to SE Louisiana by tonight, with a sharp turn, and pick up in forward speed Sunday. The problem with Karen is, there's no telling if and when all the t-storms and rain associated with the storm will move into our area. Basically, it's wait and see at this time.

WHAT TO EXPECT:
Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia-
If we talk about the worst case scenario, showers/t-storms will begin moving in by Sunday sometime, and quickly move out by Sunday night. With the ragged nature of the storm, it's way too tough to tell what exactly it might do. But, we should prepare for at most 2-4" of rain on Sunday, well below what we were thinking before, with gusty winds up to 25-30 mph possible. The flooding threat is all but gone, but there's no reason not to be prepared if heavy rain moves over the area. The good news is, Karen isn't nearly as strong as we thought it was going to be earlier this week. The bad news is, the structure of the storm makes it almost impossible to say with any confidence what it will do.

Alabama/Florida Coasts-
We still think the heaviest of the rain and wind will be confined to near the coast. Timing for the impacts once again are unclear, but we still think showers/t-storms could start there late on Saturday and continue into a good chunk of Sunday. Storm surge potential remains limited. Surge is expected to be 1-3 ft above sea level near Mobile Bay east to Apalachee Bay, and 2-4 ft in Apalachee Bay. This is assuming peak surge happens at a time close to high tide. Rainfall rates could total 3-4" with isolated higher amounts. It still isn't ideal for any of the Panhandle counties that were hit hard this year to take on any more water, but at least we aren't talking 10+ most likely. Winds will be stronger than inland sections, reaching 30-35 mph, with higher gusts possible. The severe weather threat is elevated a bit near the coast, but that threat is a low end one.

Even though Karen is barely hanging on, you should still be prepared. This is a good dress rehearsal for a tropical storm or hurricane that could impact us in the future. But just in case, be ready for the chance to see power outages, and have supplies ready to get through a day or so. Please visit www.wtvy.com/weather/hurricane for more info on how to get prepared.

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KAREN LOSING PUNCH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OE MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 90.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

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Latest forecast discussion from the 4Warn Weather Team:

Tropical Storm Karen continues to look disorganized this evening, with the main convection (t-storm and rain areas) on the eastern side of the circulation. Dry air has basically eroded the west side of the system, and SW wind shear hasn’t helped Karen either. Also, as long as Karen continues this very slow movement, the water underneath the storm is now longer warm, but being sapped of its heat content by Karen. So it’s not going to get any stronger over the next 12-18 hours. However, once it does start moving again, some warmer water to the north may help strengthen it some, but Karen probably will never reach hurricane strength. The timing of the arrival of Karen has slowed down a bit since this morning. We aren’t anticipating any impacts from it until after midday on Sunday. We could see a few outside rain bands move in early Sunday, but the heaviest of the rain won’t be felt until Sunday PM. The storm won’t be here for long, as a cold front is forecast to jettison Karen quickly to the northeast Sunday night and Monday. Nicer fall-like weather moves in after the front passes on Monday.

WHAT TO EXPECT:
Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia-
By early Sunday, winds will begin to increase with a few shower bands coming in. But most of the rain will still be south. Our rain chances increase for Sunday afternoon and could linger into Sunday night. Most computer models put the center of Karen right over the Wiregrass and a few have the east side of the storm over the Wiregrass. This would put us in the areas with the heaviest rain and wind. 3-5" of rain is possible, with higher amounts in some areas. Winds will increase to 20-25 mph, with higher gusts up to 30 mph. Also, with any land-falling tropical cyclone, severe weather is a possibility, with isolated tornadoes being a threat; however this is a very low end threat at this time. Some good news about some of the computer models is they’ve begun to lean a bit more to the east with their latest tracks. If this storm takes a sharper turn than expected, we might be spared some of the major impacts or wind and rain. Our in-house computer model has latched on to this scenario and takes the storm into the Florida Big Bend. This would essentially eliminate any concerns for us. However, this is just one solution. This should tell you that there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with this storm.

Alabama/Florida Coasts-
The heaviest of the rain, wind, severe weather threat will be confined to near the coast. Timing for the impacts will be late Saturday night into early Sunday morning continuing thru midday. The best news about Karen is that storm surge potential is limited. Surge is expected to be 1-3 ft above sea level near Mobile Bay east to Apalachee Bay, and 2-4 ft in Apalachee Bay. This is assuming peak surge happens at a time close to high tide. Rainfall rates could total 4-8" with isolated higher amounts, which would be devastating to some of the Florida Panhandle counties that were impacted by flooding earlier this year. Winds will be stronger than inland sections, reaching 30-35 mph, with higher gusts possible. The severe weather threat is elevated a bit with the chances to see severe weather in some of the feeder bands as they move in.

There is still to get prepared for the storm. This will be a Tropical Storm, and not as strong of a storm as we've seen here before. But, that's no reason to take it lightly. Be ready for the chance to see power outages, and have supplies ready to get through a day or so. Please visit www.wtvy.com/weather/hurricane for more info on how to get prepared.

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KAREN HESITATES IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. KAREN HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H LATER TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

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4PM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center

KAREN DISORGANIZED...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO DESTIN, FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SATURDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

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Latest forecast discussion from the 4Warn Weather Team:

A lot to note from overnight as Karen continues to move thru the Gulf of Mexico.
Karen is now a little less than 300 miles south of New Orleans. The movement from the National Hurricane Center is NNW at 10 mph. However, the satellite loop below shows a more NW movement instead of NNW. This could be good news for the Alabama and FL Pandhandle coasts, and ultimately for the Wiregrass. If the storm stays farther west, that could limit the rain and wind potential.
Karen is also looking very disfigured this morning, as the low level circulation is now almost totally removed of the deep convection and t-storms. All the convection is on the east side of the storm, which is a sign that the storm isn't getting any stronger, and shear took a large toll on Karen.
It is still expected a low level high pressure system and a deep layer trough of low pressure, including a cold front at the surface, will steer Karen more to the north today and then to the northeast Saturday. It all depends on how fast and sharply the trough moves Karen tomorrow to determine what kind of impacts we could see in our area.

WHAT TO EXPECT:
Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia-
By late Saturday night, winds will begin to increase with a few shower bands coming in. But most of the rain will still be south. Our rain chances increase for Sunday morning and especially Sunday afternoon. Most computer models put the center of Karen right over the Wiregrass and a few have the east side of the storm over the Wiregrass. This would put us in the heaviest rain and wind zone. 3-5" of rain is possible, with higher amounts in some areas. Winds could be fairly strong, 20-25 mph winds are possible, with higher gusts. Also, with any landfalling tropical cyclone, severe weather is a possibility, with isolated tornadoes possible, however this is a very low end threat.

Alabama/Florida Coasts-
The heaviest of the rain, wind, severe weather threat will be confined to near the coast. Timing for the impacts will be Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The best news about Karen is that storm surge potential is limited. Surge is expected to be 3-5 ft above sea level near Mobile Bay, 1-3 ft from Mobile Bay east to Apalachee Bay, and 2-4 ft in Apalachee Bay. This is assuming peak surge happens at a time close to high tide. Rainfall rates could total 4-8" with isolated higher amounts, which would be devastating to some of the Florida Panhandle counties that were impacted by flooding earlier this year. Winds will be stronger than inland sections, reaching 25-30 mph, with higher gusts possible. The severe weather threat is elevated a bit with the chances to see severe weather in some of the feeder bands as they move in.

There is still to get prepared for the storm. While this is expected to be a Tropical Storm, and not as strong of a storm as we've seen here before, that's no reason to take it lightly. Be ready for the chance to see power outages, and have supplies ready to get through these. Please visit www.wtvy.com/weather/hurricane for more info on how to get prepared.

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The following is from a press release from the City of Destin, FL:

The City of Destin is under a Hurricane Watch. Residents should review the city’s Hurricane Information Guide found on the city’s website to begin storm preparations.

www.cityofdestin.com .

Currently, city crews are preparing all city buildings, vehicles and property for hurricane-strength weather. Today and tomorrow, public services crews will be checking and clearing storm drains throughout the city and making sure all pumps are ready for use. Public services crew will be on call this weekend, ready to respond. Parks crews are removing loose items from the parks including trash cans and flags. Crews will continue to monitor all parks as the storm progresses.

The Okaloosa County Commission will meet at 9 a.m. tomorrow at the county EOC. The city will coordinate with the county regarding all emergency operations.

Other items to note:
• Joe’s Bayou Boat Launch fees are being waived effective immediately to allow boats to be removed from the water. This will be in effect until further notice.
• The city’s quarterly Adopt-A-Street cleanup scheduled for Saturday morning is canceled.
• Sand and sandbags will be available at the city’s public services maintenance yard at 3949 Commons Drive. This information will be sent to the news and posted on the city’s website today.
• The city will continue to work with local media to provide public updates. Also, be sure to sign up for news updates from the city’s website, www.cityofdestin.com, to receive information directly from the city.


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