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Hurricane Danielle Latest Aug 25 Afternoon

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...DANIELLE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 53.1W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER
WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C...AND A FAINT EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN SEEN
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THIS
IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANALYSES
FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DANIELLE IS
STILL AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN JUST OUTSIDE THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/15. FOR THE NEXT
48-72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW
AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING
THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED.
THE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING
NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF IT THEREAFTER.

DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN 12-18 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
THE SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR DANIELLE DURING THE 24-72 HR
TIME FRAME...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING CONSISTENTLY STRONGER SHEAR
THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE LIGHTER-SHEAR SCENARIO AND CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KT
IN 72 HR. THIS IS AGAIN BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/GFDN AND
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SHIPS/LGEM. AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE
SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 21.2N 53.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 54.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 56.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 62.5W 85 KT


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