Posted: 02/09/2009 - Short Term
Posted: 02/09/2009 - Short Term
Posted: 02/09/2009 - Extended Discussion
Updated: 02/10/2009 - This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014...At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop.
Updated: 02/10/2009 - There are signs our weather is taking a time machine ride back to the regimes of the 1960s or even the late 1700s early 1800s. Our climate operates in cycles, which favors different regimes of weather. We have come out of a few decades that thanks to a warm Pacific resulted in a dominance of El Ninos and its typical southern storm tracks and warm, dry western North America. The Pacific has cooled and now favors La Ninas, which have dominated the last two winters. This has resulted in a more northern storm track (and as we reported in earlier stories (here and here and here), record monthly or seasonal snows). The Atlantic is cooling too. The AMO has declined from its 2004/05 peak. The sum of the PDO and AMO we have shown correlates well with US annual temperatures. Longer term the sun is behaving like it did in the last 1700s and early 1800s, leading many to believe we are likely to experience conditions more like the early 1800s (called the Dalton Minimum) in the next few decades. That was a time of cold and snow. It was the time of Charles Dickens and his novels with snow and cold in London (hmmmm). During these cold modes, more La Nina winters like this occur, El Ninos occasionally develop, tend to be briefer and weaker and thus colder and snowier than the El Ninos of the warm eras. If a major volcano occurs, the cold deepens.
Posted: 02/09/2009 - I am appalled at the selection of James Hansen as this year’s recipient of the AMS’s highest award - the Rossby Research Medal. James Hansen has not been trained as a meteorologist. His formal education has been in astronomy. His long records of faulty global climate predictions and alarmist public pronouncements have become increasingly hollow and at odds with reality. Hansen has exploited the general public’s lack of knowledge of how the globe’s climate system functions for his own benefit. His global warming predictions, going back to 1988 are not being verified. Why have we allowed him go on for all these years with his faulty and alarmist prognostications? And why would the AMS give him its highest award? Instead of organizing meetings with free and open debates on the basic physics and the likelihood of AGW (anthropogenic - manmade - global warming) induced climate changes, the leaders of the society (with the backing of the society's AGW enthusiasts) have chosen to fully trust the climate models and deliberately avoid open debate on this issue. For a long time I have wanted a forum to express my skepticism of the AGW hypothesis. No such opportunities ever came within the AMS framework. The climate modelers and their supporters deny the need for open debate of the AGW question on the grounds that the issue has already been settled by their model results. They have taken this view because they know that the physics within their models and the long range of their forecast periods will likely not to be able to withstand knowledgeable and impartial review. They simply will not debate the issue. A type of McCarthyism against AGW skeptics has been in display for a number of years.
Posted: 02/09/2009 - Recently the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) featured an editorial suggesting to broadcast meteorologists that they should become familiar with (and adopt) the ‘consensus position’ as outlined by the IPCC Fourth Assessment and the AMS in its Statement on Climate Change. It appears that the governing boards of these organizations buckled to pressure from those promoting the politically correct view of UN and Gore-inspired science. These organizations have been overtaken by alarmists. Because broadcasters do not stand to benefit from the research dollars and the senior members have lived through warming and cooling cycles before, they tend to be more objective and balanced on the issue, acknowledging some influence of man on climate but also recognizing the importance of natural variability and cycles. With my experience as chief meteorologist for two large weather companies and after having addressed the Broadcasters on Global Warming and with my many contacts in operational meteorology, climatology and broadcasting, I believe the majority of rank and file members with those specialties (as much as 60 or 70%) do not buy the man is entirely responsible for climate change dogma. But the societies use their statements and like the IPCC imply full support of all the scientists involved. There would be a mass exodus of AMS members if their jobs didn’t depend on the seals or certification or fellow designation. This kind of exodus occurred in the 1970s when the National Weather Association was formed because the AMS moved more towards Academia and no longer served the needs of the operational meteorologist. A PRICE TO PAY Very soon when a suddenly less active sun and decadal shifts back to colder oceans cause global temperatures to clearly fall (we actually have not risen now in 9 years and some measures have already started down), these societies, the UN and the media which is violating its own code of ethics by its on-sided coverage of the issue must be held accountable for their actions and any harm their advocacy positions cause to the world’s economies and its people.
Updated: 02/07/2009 - NASA has delayed the next space shuttle launch again.
Updated: 02/06/2009 - A new NOAA polar-orbiting environmental satellite was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California today and is now circling the globe every 102 minutes taking images and measurements to support NOAA’s efforts to forecast and monitor the environment. NOAA-19 joins NOAA-18 and one European environmental satellite already in polar orbit.
Posted: 02/06/2009 - NOAA scientists have created a high-resolution digital elevation model, or DEM, of Santa Barbara, Calif., that simulates the effects of deadly tsunamis and coastal floods.
Updated: 02/05/2009 - Florida's "Fern Belt" has been struck hard by multiple freezes. Many fern crops have been badly damaged, spiking bouquet costs for this Valentine's Day.
Posted: 02/05/2009 - Talk about great timing. Buffalo State College hosts the national teach-in on Global Warming Situations today — a day the local temperature bottomed out at minus 6 degrees.
Posted: 02/05/2009 - BEIJING (AP) — China declared an emergency Thursday in eight provinces suffering a serious drought that has left nearly 4 million people without proper drinking water and is threatening millions of acres of crops.
Updated: 02/04/2009 - Solar power - the lean years: People aren't really investing in solar energy right now. Something to do with the economy tanking, perhaps?
Updated: 02/04/2009 - When meteorologists say "The wind chill..." what it actually means...
Posted: 02/04/2009 - It was news worldwide last July. “A huge ice dam on Argentina’s Perito Moreno glacier broke apart for the first time during the southern hemisphere winter”. At that time we published here at ICECAP the opinions of local experts dismissing the global warming connection. Well, six months have passed since the unusual breakup of the Perito Moreno and this morning I was surprised to read a Reuters news agency report that the glacier is expanding,
Posted: 02/04/2009 - The claim that carbon dioxide (CO2) can increase air temperatures by “trapping” infrared radiation (IR) ignores the fact that in 1909 physicist R.W. Wood disproved the popular 19th Century thesis that greenhouses stayed warm by trapping IR. Unfortunately, many people who claim to be scientists are unaware of Wood’s experiment which was originally published in the Philosophical magazine , 1909, vol 17, p319-320. The experiment conclusively demonstrates that greenhouses heat up and stay warm by confining heated air rather than by trapping IR. If trapping IR in an enclosed space doesn’t cause higher air temperature than CO2 in the atmosphere cannot cause higher air temperatures. Trapping IR with CO2 would be like trying to confine mice with a chain link fence. Contrary to the lie repeated in news stories about climate, science doesn’t say that CO2 is causing higher temperatures by trapping IR. Empirical science indicates that no such process exists in this physical universe.
Posted: 02/04/2009 - Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami will have their briefings carried live this season on Web sites when a storm threatens to make landfall in the U.S.
Updated: 02/03/2009 - For those who have loved ones overseas, here is a peek at the weather conditions at the Kabul Airport in Afghanistan...
Updated: 02/04/2009 - The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a Wind Chill Advisory and a Hard Freeze Warning from 3 a.m. to 8 a.m. Wednesday, February 4, 2009 for our area.
Updated: 02/03/2009 - In the first real test of the Obama administration's ability to respond to a disaster, Kentucky officials are giving the federal government good marks for its response to a deadly ice storm.
Updated: 02/03/2009 - LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – As Sgt. Michael Franks pulled up to a shack resting among the ice-coated limbs of a forest in northeast Arkansas, he said he couldn't believe that anyone was living on the property located miles from any major road — let alone a 92-year-old woman waiting for something to eat. But there was Jewel Kitrel, sitting on a tattered couch, warming herself by a wood-burning stove.
Updated: 02/03/2009 - The reality is if CO2 is reduced we are worse off as the plants suffer. Something must be done to protect the plants from fanaticism. There is no evidence CO2 is causing global warming or climate change but that is the basis for the proposed actions. So you have the paradox of environmentalists screaming to reduce CO2 to save the planet, while putting all life in jeopardy by killing the plants. The current atmospheric CO2 level is reportedly 380 ppm. Plant growth slows at 220 ppm and stops at 150 ppm. Most plants grow 2 to 3 times faster in 1200 to 1500 ppm, but the optimum range is 800 to 1000 ppm. This means plants are malnourished under current conditions. Environmentalists and governments have abandoned the plants in the false belief a reduction of CO2 would stop global warming. It is time to defend the plants from these misguided people.
Updated: 02/03/2009 - In November 2008, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), run by Dr James Hansen, and one of the four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures, announced that October 2008 was the “hottest on record”. In October, two independent monitors at Watts Up With That and Climate Audit, performed their own detailed analysis of Hansen’s reported data. They discovered that the GISS readings from across a swathe of Russia that appeared to reveal a warming of 10 degrees above average were not readings for October at all. They were a repeat of September’s readings. But then this is far from the first time Hansen has been caught ‘fiddling’ the climate figures.
Updated: 02/03/2009 - Besides having a remarkable knack for scheduling big speeches on remarkably cold or snowy days (it’s known as the “Gore Effect” in journalistic circles), Gore has been incredibly ineffective in bringing his message home. And fail he has. The Pew Foundation recently asked Americans to choose which of 20 prominent issues is of most importance. They included the economy, crime, education, and, of course, global warming, which came in dead last. Gore’s failure is his own fault. He gained a reputation for exaggeration during his 2000 campaign, and he's unable to shake it - because he’s proud of it, saying that it's just fine to emphasize extreme global warming scenarios because they get people's attention. People notice these exaggerations. He’s created a climate of extremes that people are simply tired of, which is why his issue ranks dead last.
Updated: 02/03/2009 - Hardware stores and auto parts shops scored a post-holiday run of business this week as Anchorage-area residents stocked up on protective eyewear and masks ahead of a possible eruption of Mount Redoubt.