US Short Term and Extended Forcast thru Jul 12

...Heavy rain threat continues across the Southeast, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...

...the area of excessive heat continues to shrink out west...

A very persistent flow of tropical air circulating northward around a
strong cell of high pressure over the western Atlantic and a slow moving upper level trough will continue to bring a large area of showers and thunderstorms for the next several days from Florida and the Southeast northward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Satellite imagery shows this large plume of moisture from the Tropics converging across the Southeast northward toward the Great Lakes.

Within this area of precipitation, some of the showers and thundershowers are expected to be quite heavy with the threat of flash flooding occurring each day. Diurnal fluctuations in heating will increase/decrease the areas during day/night. As of tonight, a large area of flash flood watches remains across much of the Southeast, eastern Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley.

The area of excessive heat has shrunk out west but is expected to continue very hot and dry conditions across interior California and portions of the Southwest for the next few days. There are also expected to be scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin across parts of the Southwest that can both locally cool areas but also continue the threat of fires as well.

Across northern California, the heat is expected to break tomorrow as
cooler air finally moves inland across the northern half of the state. In
addition, cooler temperatures are expected across much of the Pacific NW and will reach across Montana over the next couple days.

Extended Forecast Discussion

...Overview And Model Preferences...

The Upper Level Flow Is Forecast To Transition Away From A
Quasi-Zonal Flow Early Next Week Toward A Trough/Ridge/Trough
Pattern Along The West Coast/Four Corners/Great Lakes...

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Precipitation Should Focus Along The Frontal Boundary First Near
The Great Lakes And Midwest Then Farther East And South... Into
The Northeast/Mid-Atlantic/Tn Valley As The Upper Trough Digs In.

The Gulf Coast States Will Also Have An Increased Threat Of Rain
And Afternoon Storms With A Continued Southerly Flow.

An Upper Disturbance /Tutt/ Should Move Through Florida From The East By Midweek Which Will Help Ignite More Precip Upon Its Arrival.

Over The Sw... Moisture Should Be On The Increase With A Better Chance Of Precip Later In The Week.

Temperatures Should Stay Above Normal In The West... Especially Over The Northern/Central Rockies While The Central/Eastern Conus Remains Near To Below Normal.

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