Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2013
Valid 00Z Fri Jul 05 2013 - 00Z Sun Jul 07 2013
...Flash Flooding a concern tonight and Friday for the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, central Tennessee, central Kentucky and southwestern Ohio...
...Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect out West, but a cooling trend is in the forecast across the West...
An expansive area of showers and thunderstorm activity continues tonight and Friday along the central Gulf Coast northward into the Tennessee Valley, the lower to mid-Ohio Valley, the Piedmont, portions of the south Atlantic coast and eastern Great Lakes.
The moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to continue into Saturday morning as a trough of low pressure stalls over the Ozarks and out ahead of the trough, a deep fetch of tropical Gulf moisture surges northward.
The higher amounts of rainfall, locally more than 5 inches of additional rainfall, are anticipated, and by Saturday night, the trough will slowly lift northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes.
Out west, excessive heat warnings continue for portions of Nevada,
interior California and northwest Arizona for high temperature above 110F and overnight lows in the 80F-85F range. However, a cooling trend will continue in the Pacific Northwest, northern California and northern Great Basin as onshore Pacific flow surges through the region.
Over the remainder of the holiday weekend, high temperatures should be a good 10-15 degrees cooler than previous days. And by the end of the holiday weekend, the heat will shift eastward to the Four Corners region and into the central Rockies.
Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
1139 Am Edt Thu Jul 04 2013
Valid 12z Sun Jul 07 2013 - 12z Thu Jul 11 2013
For Several Days Now, The Ensemble Means Have Unwaveringly
Indicated The Transition From High-Amplitude Meridional Flow, To
Brief Zonal Flow, To Lower-Amplitude Meridional Flow Across The
United States At The Medium Range. The Deterministic Models--Gfs,
Ecmwf, Gem Global, Et Cetera--Have Been Less Stable Sorting Out
The Whys And Wherefores Of The Atmospheric Evolution.
Most Of The Rainfall This Period Is Anticipated Astride And North
Of The Polar Front Wriggling Across The Great Plains, Midwest,
Great Lakes, And Eventually The Northeast.
A Secondary Precipitation Maximum Is Forecast Along The Northern Coast Of The Gulf Of Mexico, Where Some Energy Will Be Left In The Wake Of The Withdrawing Trough On Day 3.
Late In The Forecast, Some Monsoonal Shower Activity Is Expected To Fire Over Southeastern Arizona And Adjacent Portions Of New Mexico As The New Longwave Ridge Begins To Sharpen Along The Spine Of The Rocky Mountains.
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