US Short Term Forecast to Jul 16

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to parts of the Northern Appalachians...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Southern Ohio Valley / Tennessee Valley and over parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast...

...Temperatures will be 10 to near 20 degrees below average over the Upper Midwest...

A deep upper-level trough over South-Central Canada will swing southeastward over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Moisture will be pooling along the associated front extending from the Northeast to the Southern Plains that will sink southward to the Mid-Atlantic/Tennessee Valley to Texas by Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary from the Northeast across the Ohio Valley to parts of the Southern Plains.

The showers and thunderstorms will move to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and extend southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley / Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday. In addition, an upper-level disturbance over the Central Gulf Coast will aid in triggering showers and thunderstorms over the Eastern to Central Gulf Coast from Sunday evening into Monday morning.

Additionally, as the deep trough moves over the Upper Great Lakes, light rain will develop over parts of the area Monday into Tuesday.

Meanwhile, moisture trapped under an upper-ridge along with upper-level impulses traveling clockwise around the ridge will aid in triggering showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern / Central Rockies into parts of the Southwest through Monday night. Some showers and rain will move into parts of Southeastern California and parts of the Great Basin on Monday.

Additional upper-level energy moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will rotate around the top of the ridge to the Northern Rockies by Tuesday. The energy will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the interior Northwest and expand over the Northern Rockies by Monday morning. The area of showers and thunderstorms will move into parts of the Northern High Plains by Tuesday.

Elsewhere, upslope flow over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.


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