Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2014
Valid 00Z Mon Feb 17 2014 - 00Z Wed Feb 19 2014
--Another round of rain and snow for the Central and Eastern U.S.--
--Remaining active over the Pacific Northwest--
The polar vortex will remain at high latitude of Canada this period, close to the North Pole.
This pattern leads to above average temperatures for the lower 48, a minimal threat of heavy precipitation east of the Rockies due to downslope flow and minimal inflow from the Gulf of Mexico.
Progressive systems will be on the march from west to east across the contiguous United States. This pattern should persist well into the work week.
For starters, a tight pressure gradient on the southwestern side of a
deepening storm moving across Atlantic Canada will cause gusty winds over New England today before more tranquil conditions arrive on Monday.
Over the Southern Plains, the next surface low is forecast to take shape and move towards the lower Great Lakes by Monday night.
This is expected to bring mainly light to moderate snow from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic States, with showers and thunderstorms slated for portions of the lower to mid Mississippi valley and the Deep South.
Light sleet and freezing rain is possible across the Midwest from
eastern Nebraska across southern Iowa/northern Missouri and portions of the lower Ohio valley.
Warmer weather is expected about a day after this storm system passes by as upper level ridging is expected for the beginning of the work week.
Southern Texas in particular, which remains within the warm sector of systems passing by to its north, is expected to warm up into the mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon.
Out West, sustained moisture flow and frontal passages from the Pacific are expected to keep conditions unsettled across the Northwest and the northern Continental Divide with widespread moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation through Tuesday.
Most of the precipitation should be in the form of rain in lower elevations and snowfall for the higher elevations.