Short Range Forecast Discussion
Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Valid 00Z Mon Apr 14 2014 - 00Z Wed Apr 16 2014
...Light to moderate snow expected from the Ohio Valley into
northern/western New York State Tuesday...
...Cold front to continue bringing major cold shift eastward into the
early part of the week...
A Spring storm system in the center of the U.S. will continue to affect
much of the Nation's weather through Tuesday night.
As a strong cold front, currently extending from the Great Lakes to West Texas, moves eastward, a broad fetch of warm/moist air will advect northward ahead of the boundary, supporting heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.
The severe threat for the remainder of today into early Monday morning will extend from eastern Kansas to central Texas, and eastward to the Mississippi River as per the Storm Prediction Center given favorable overlaps of wind shear and instability.
For Monday, the severe threat is forecast in and around the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Given the moisture in place, these thunderstorms will have the potential for heavy rain, but the greater threat for flash flooding is mostly north of the severe threat, from much of Iowa into lower Michigan through Sunday night given antecedent wet conditions.
Anomalously cold air will filter in behind the strong cold front with snow developing tonight across southeastern Colorado into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
By Tuesday morning, temperatures will fall below freezing from southern Kansas, across Oklahoma into northern Texas.
Twenty four hour temperature drops of 20-30 degrees Fahrenheit will easily be seen for many behind this cold front.
As the front reaches the eastern U.S., snow will develop on the back side of the precipitation shield with mostly light accumulations impacting the Ohio Valley into northern and western New York after the changeover from rain occurs.
Flooding from remaining snow cover with rain across northern New England will also be possible into the middle of the week.