US Short Term Forecast thru Jul 20

...Heat advisories are in place from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and into much of the Mid-Atlantic...

...A threat for severe weather exists on Thursday over the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes...

...Flash flooding is possible across West Texas and Southern New Mexico through Friday morning...

A broad upper ridge encompassing much of the eastern half of the country will keep temperatures toasty over the region. In fact, heat advisories are currently in effect from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and into sections of the Mid-Atlantic. This is in response to the combination of heat and humidity making temperatures feel like 100 degrees plus.

However, some relief will be in sight as a fairly potent cold front sags
southward throughout the period. The air mass working its way across the international border to the north should lower highs into the 70s over the north-central states by Friday. Given the rather significant temperature contrast along this frontal zone, expect volatile conditions to persist.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight an area of severe
thunderstorms along with cold front. The threat area is forecast to cover much of the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes region on Thursday before shifting into the Southern Great Lakes and interior Northeast by the following day.

The other feature affecting the nation for the remainder of the week is a meandering upper low across Northern Mexico. Several pieces of energy breaking off the cyclone center will spread into the Four Corners region fueling daily showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the peak heating of the day.

As sections of West Texas and Southern New Mexico have already experienced heavy rainfall in recent days, additional rains may lead to flash flooding conditions through early Friday. Otherwise, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to continue into the weekend with
precipitation winding down overnight given the loss of solar insolation.

Looking elsewhere, the Eastern Gulf Coast remains in an active period for rainfall. Persistent east to southeasterly flow at the surface will maintain a very moist air mass along the Gulf Coast. In particular,
Florida can expect early morning thunderstorms along both coasts before migrating inland throughout the day as the sea breezes advance inland.

Across interior locations of the Western U.S., a building upper ridge will raise temperatures well into the 90s with pockets of 100 degree readings through Friday. A stark contrast in temperatures will exist while approaching the coastline given the influence of the low/mid 50s ocean temperatures on their local weather.

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