Overall Pattern And Sensible Weather Threats/Highlights...
The Models And Ensembles Point To An Active And Transitional
Medium Range Flow Pattern Starting Tue/Wed Into Thu With The
Lifting Of A Well Organized Mid-Upper Level Trough And Surface Low
System/Winter Weather Swath From The Mid-Ms Valley To The
Midwest/Great Lakes/Ne Us As Moisture Wraps Into The System...Also Then Enhanced By Lake Effect. A Trailing Cold Front Approach Across The Se/Ern Us Will Also Focus Precipitation.
Meanhwile...Another Dynamic Mid-Upper Level Shortwave Trough Digs Winter Pcpn Sewd Over The Wrn Us Mon/Tue Before Ejecting Ewd Across The Central And Ern States Wed/Thu...Possibly Leading To Some East Coastal Surface Low Response.
Another Trough In This Series Is On Its Heals Back Across The West Midweek...But Expected Rapid Upstream Flow Amplification Out From The Ern Pacific Has Good Guidance Support To Lead To Development Of An Amplified Wrn Us Mid-Upper Level Ridge By Late Next Week.
This May Force The Lead Impulse To Amplify With Nrn Stream Energy Into Quite An Amplified And Cold E-Central Us Mid-Upper Level Trough In A Positive Pna Pattern.
Downstream...Trends Continued Toward An Increasingly Blocky (Negative) Nao Pattern Emerging In The Nrn Atlantic Heading Into Next Weekend With High Latitude Height Rises Feeding Wwd Across Srn Greenland Toward Ern Canada.
Guidance Evaluation And Weather System Preferences...
Model And Ensemble Mean Guidance Has Overall Converged Upon A More Common/Better Clustered Mid-Large Scale Solution For Much Of The Forecast Domain Next Week Compared To The Last Few Days With The Last Couple Gfs/Gefs Runs More In Line/Less Progressive.
Lower Forecast Spread Bolsters Forecaster Confidence Despite A
Transitional Pattern. The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Even So Has Proven The Most Run To Run Consistent Through Medium Range Time Scales Recently And Now Sits On The Slightly Slower/More Amplified Side Of The Full Envelope Of Guidance Aloft.
This Solution Remains Well Supported By Upstream Amplitude Over The Pacific As Depicted In Recent Water Vapor Imagery Loops.
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