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US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Jan 5

...2013 To Start Off 'Cold' Across Much Of The United States...

Along The West Coast...2 Systems Track South-Southeastward Into
California In The Medium Range Forecast Period Then Migrate
Through The Southern Rockies And Middle Rio Grande In The Southern Stream. To Maintain Some Continuity With The Previous Progs...Used Pieces Of The 28/12z Canadian And Ecmwf Runs. Not Much Of The 28/12z & 29/00z Gfs Could Be Used In The Medium Range Graphics...Including The More Progressive...Faster...And Flatter Gefs Means.

The Previous 2 Runs Of The Canadian (28/00z & 28/12z) Would Be
Aggressive Solutions On Day 3 Across California Vs The 28/18z Gefs
Mean...28/12z Ecmwf Means And Previous 2 Runs Of The Operational
Ecmwf (28/00z & 28/12z). Interestingly...The Trend Of The
Operational Canadian/Ecmwf Is More Of An Offshore Track...West And
South Of Pt Concepcion. And Slower. In Fact...Both Of These
Operational Runs Are Slower Than Their Corresponding Ensemble
Means Even Into Day 4.

Days 4-5....The Canadian Continues To Be The Aggressive Solution
In The Northern Gulf Of California With Its Closed H5 Solution.
With The 28/12z Canadian And Ecmwf Operational Runs Offering
Decent Details With This Southern Stream System Til Day5...Began
Blending In The 28/12z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean In The East Pacific/ West Coast To Offset The Very Slow 28/12z Canadian Solution Along 130w. In Fact...The 28/12z Canadian Ensemble Means Look To Be Slow Outlier In The Northern Pacific Day 5 Vs The 28/18z Gefs Mean And 28/12z Ecmwf Means. This Posed A Problem And/Or Challenge Into Day 7 For Maintaining Continuity...Would Make The Operational Canadian The Preferred Solution. Seemed Out Of Place For Days 6-7 Altogether From Dateline To 100w (Central Conus/Plains) .

Across The Great Basin...Intermountain West And The Rockies...Not
A Ton Of Changes In The New Progs. The Upper-Level Ridge
Essentially Holds Firm Through Day 7. What Erosion That Does Occur Looks To Be In The Day 5-6 Time Frame With The 2nd West Coast System Splitting And Tracking Southeastward.

Energy Moving Atop The Ridge Axis And Into South Central British Columbia Quickly Tracks East Into The Dakotas. The Last Two Runs Of The Ecmwf Are Very Cold Across The Great Basin And Colorado River Basin...With Sub-Zero Readings In Northern Nevada...Parts Of Wyoming And Colorado. Near To Below Freezing Temperatures Were As Far South As Las Vegas And Phoenix By Day 4-5!!!

Few Adjustments Were Needed Downstream In The Confluent Flow
Across The Midwest...Great Lakes And Points Eastward To The
Western Atlantic Shoreline And Gulf Coast. Manual Sfc/H5 Graphics
Blended The Previous 2 Ecmwf Runs For Finer Details In Tandem With The 28/12z Ecmwf Ensemble Means To Track A Procession Of Canadian Frontal Boundaries Tracking Through The East And Southeast. The Northern Gulf Coast And Eastern Shores Of The Carolinas Will Be The Wetter Areas Of The Country To Start Off The New Year.


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