US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Jan 31

The Models And Ensembles Seem To Reasonably Show That Mid-Upper Level Troughing Working Into The Wrn Us This Weekend Will Amplify As It Progresses Into The Wrn-Cntrl Conus While A Ridge Builds Over The Ern Pacific.

Teleconnections Relative To The Upstream Ridge Suggests Some Energy Within This Trough May Be Pulled Swwd Over The Sw Us. This May Bring A Broad Area Of Moisture And Below Normal Daytime Temps To The West And Ultimately Lead To A Significant Warming Downstream.

By Mid-Late Next Week The Steady Progression Of The Wrn Trough Energies Out Across The Central And Associated Lead Favorable Theta-E Advection Into/Ahead Of A Wavy Frontal System Will Offer Potential For Organized Heavier Pcpn Centered Over The E-Central Us/Sern Us And Eventually The Nern Us With A Drier Trend Over The West.

While Ensemble Means Have Held Onto A Fairly Consistent Evolution
Over The Conus And Vicinity During The Past Day Or So... Operational Models Continue To Differ From Run To Run And Among
Each Other With Respect To The Distribution Of Energy Within The
Moderately Progressive And Positively Tilted Mean Trough And With
The Subsequent System/Stream Downstream Response.

Accordingly...Hpc Medium Range Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Have Been Primarily Derived From An Ensemble Mean
Blend...Leaning A Bit More On The Slightly More Amplified Ecmwf
Mean. The Gfs And Ecmwf Ensemble Means Are Compatable Enough
Though That A Blend Still Maintains Reasonable Embedded System
Definition That Seems Fairly Consistent With Lingering Uncertainty.


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