The Models And Ensembles Are In Good Agreement Early Next Week And Still Show Quite An Amplified Pattern For The Nation Highlighted
By Stable Mid-Upper Level West Coast Ridging And A Well Carved And Quite Cold Downstream East-Central Mid-Upper Level Trough.
This Pattern Breaks Down Quickly As Ern Pacific Trough Energy/ Weather Progresses Inland Through The Wrn Us Ridge Midweek... Though Not Quite As Amplified As Yesterdays Guidance.
A Continued Eastward Trough Progression At Mid-Upper Levels
Subsequently Acts To Significantly Warm Lead Downstream Central To Ern Us Temperatures. Lead Flow Should Also Increase Moisture
Availability And Widespread/Organized Precipitation Potential
Later Next Week With Potentially Quite Wavy Surface Front
Consolidation Then Approach And Passage To Off The East Coast By
Forecast Solution Spread And Uncertainty Does Though Increase Quickly Late Week...Especially With More Complicated Surface System Development/Supression Possibilities And Associated
Lower Level Mass Field Response.
Hpc Overnight Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Tue/Wed
Have Been Primarily Derived From Blend Of The Compatable 12 Utc
Gfs/Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean. Hpc Guidance Transitions To A
Blend Of The 12 Utc Gfs And Ecmwf Ensemble Mean By Fri/Sat.
These Solutions Seem A Good Fit With The Pattern Aloft Shown By Most Guidance...Cluster Well Together...And Also Maintain Max Hpc
Continuity In A Period Of Increasing Uncertainty.
This Is Especially True With Possible Surface System Response And Sensible Weather Focus. The 18 Utc Gfs In Particular Was An Outlier From This Hpc Flow Scenario...But The 00 Utc Gfs Was More Back In Line.
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