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US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Jan 19

The Guidance Still Forecast A Displacement To The Upper Vortex
Over Northern Canada During The Next Few Days To A Position
Farther South Over Hudson Bay.

Balancing Ridging Over The Western Portion Of The Continent Will Remain In Place... Locking In The Pattern. The Ecmwf And Especially Its Ensemble Members Have Been Quite Consistent In The Overall Forecast With The Gefs Ensembles Close Behind. The Gfs/Ukmet/Canadian Deterministic Models Have Proven Less Useful As Explicit Solutions With Too Much Variability Over Recent Runs.

The Forecast Hinges On The Interaction Between The Southward
Moving Upper Vortex Over Eastern Canada And Energy Ejecting Out Of
The Southwestern States In The Early Part Of The Medium Range
Period.

The Ecmwf Has Been Consistent On First Closing Off An Upper Low Over The Sw States And Then Moving It Eastward Next Week... With A Trend Toward A Quicker Pace... Before Getting Shunted Through The Southeast.

The Gfs Did Close Off The Upper Low Many Cycles Ago But Then Switched To A Much More Progressive Solution Thursday Before Then Coming Back To A Closed Solution Recently But Falling On The Slower Side Of The Ensemble Spread.

The Trend In The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Has Been A Slightly Quicker
Sw Low Exit... And Will Stay With This Thinking In The Latest Forecast. Used A 70/30 Ecmwf/Ecens Mean Blend That Shifted To
Opposite Weighting By Days 6-7 As The Ecmwf Fell On The More
Aggressive Side Of The Ensemble Spread.

With Such A Broad Northwesterly Flow Out Of Canada Through Most Of The Conus... A Colder And Drier Pattern Is Forecast.

Precip Should Focus Along And To The North Of The Frontal Boundary In The Southeast In A Widespread Light To Moderate Rainfall. Some Snow Is Possible On The Nw Side Of The Precip Shield In A Marginally Cold Airmass.

Otherwise... Energy Moving Around The Deep Upper Low Over Hudson Bay Will Spread Generally Light Precip To The Northern Tier
But With Lake Enhanced Precip From Michigan To Nys.


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