US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Jan 18

...Pattern Shift In Store For The Conus Over The Next Week...

Overview...

The Amplified Trough/Ridge Setup Over The Conus In The Short Term
This Weekend Will Flip By The End Of Next Week As A Portion Of The
Polar Vortex Over Northern Canada Attempts To Invade The
Northeastern Portion Of The Country.

The Strong Ridge Over Florida And The Bahamas Will Slowly Move Eastward Through The Period.

Model/Ensemble Guidance...

There Is Generally Very Good Agreement Aloft With The Pattern
Evolution Among The 12z/10 Models/Ensembles.

However... The Gfs/Ukmet Remain Quicker Than The Ecmwf/ Canadian And Majority Of Gefs/Ecmwf Ensembles To Eject A Closed Low Out Of The Southwestern Conus By Wed/D5.

In Addition... The Gfs Bring The Polar Vortex Farther South Through Hudson Bay At A Quicker Pace Than The Ensembles Do.

The Ecmwf Shows Very Good Agreement With The Gefs And Ecmwf Ensembles Over The Southwest/Southern Plains And Over The Northeast... And Was Used Heavily In Much Of The Forecast.

By The End Of The Week... The 12z/10 Ecmwf Was Quicker Than Both The 12z/10 Ecmwf Ensemble Mean And Slowest 18z/10 Gefs Mean To Move The Sw Cutoff Eastward Into The Lower Ms Valley. Trended Toward The Ensemble Means Given Their Good Agreement.

Sensible Weather...

Long Fetch Sw Flow In The Eastern States Early In The Week Ahead
Of The Upper Low Means A Slowly Moving Boundary Hung Up Along The Se Coast Thanks To Stubborn Ridging To The East.

Precip Should Focus Along And North Of The Front But Should Decrease In Intensity As Its Support Is Sheared Out To The Northeast.

By Later In The Week As The Upper Low Moves Through Texas Gulf Moisture Should Get Drawn Northward Through The Lower Ms Valley Into The Southeast. How Much Qpf Will Depend On The Speed/Depth Of The Mid-Level Energy. Sfc Low Development May Enhance The Rainfall /Per The Ecmwf/ But The Ensembles Are Not As Bullish.

Lighter Qpf /Including Snow/ Is Expected With The Passage Of A Cold Front Within The Nw Flow Around The Polar Vortex From The Northern High Plains Eastward Through The Great Lakes Into The
Northeast. Qpf With The Upper Low Over The Sw Will Generally Be
Limited To New Mexico And Points Eastward Thanks To A Relatively
Dry Atmosphere Over Arizona.


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