Relied On The 00z/25 Ecens Mean For The Medium Range Forecast.
The Guidance Is Beginning To Recover From The Disparate Handling Of The Upper Low Over The Far Southwest At The Beginning Of The Period.
Preferred The 00z/25 Ecens Mean Over The 12z/25 Ecens Mean For Two Reasons: First, It Is A Bit Slower With The Ejection Of The Southwest Trough--Which Fits The Climatology Of These Systems.
Second, It Does Not Amplified The Northern Stream As Deeply Into
The Eastern States Late In The Period--Which Fits Persistence For
See No Reason To Collapse Heights Over The Deep South Or Southeast With The Ongoing Specter Of The Subtropical Ridge Over Those Regions.
This Solution Plays Down The Development Of The Deep Low Some Of The Models Are Generating Over The Great Lakes--Via Phasing.
A Wholesale Warming Across The Nation East Of The Rockies Is Expected Early In The Forecast, With A Return To The Status Quo By Day 7.
The Models Have Demonstrated Great Difficulty In Sorting Out The Particulars Of The Relaxing Of Flow Regimes This Winter, So Tried To Honor The Tenacity Of The Cold, Dry Regime Of Late.
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