The Days 3-7 Tue-Sat Period Should Be Fairly Active Within A Large
Scale Positively Tilted Conus Mean Trough Downstream From An Ern
This Pattern Will Favor Coldest Temps Relative To Normal Over The Interior West With Some Cold Air Eventually Reaching The Plains For At Least A Brief Time.
There Will Be Two Primary Systems Of Interest... A Wave Tracking Newd From The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico Into The Atlc... Followed By Nrn Pac Energy That Should Amplify Over The Lower 48 And Once It Reaches The Ern States By The End Of The Fcst May Potentially Generate A Significant Storm.
A 40/30/30 Blend Of The 12z Ecmwf Mean/Gefs Mean/Ecmwf Best Represents Overall Fcst Prefs Thru The Period.
Ensembles And Global Models Generally Suggest A Track Somewhat
Sewd Of Recent Gfs Runs Is Most Likely With The Leading Sfc Low...
While Teleconnections Support Ecmwf/Ukmet/Cmc Runs Plus Ecmwf/Cmc Ensemble Means That Show A More Positively Tilted Trailing Trough Aloft Than Fcst By Recent Gfs Runs.
By The End Of Day 7 Sat The 12z Gefs Mean May Become Too Neutrally Tilted With Its Ern Trough But Before That Point Comes Closer To The Other Solns Than The 18z Gefs Mean.
With The Wrn Gulf To Atlc Sfc Low During The Tue-Thu Time Frame...
Gfs Runs Have Generally Remained On The Nwrn Side Of The Full
Guidance Spread Though Not To The Point Of Being Outliers Relative
To Individual Ensemble Members. The Relatively Progressive Nature
Of Flow Containing The Supporting Energy Ejecting From The Srn
Rockies/High Plains... And Positive Tilt Of The Established Large
Scale Mean Pattern... Seem To Favor An Intermediate Soln Centered
Close To The 12z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean. The 12z Ecmwf Is Slightly
Ewd And Gefs Mean Slightly Wwd. The 00z Gefs Mean Adds Support
For This Idea And Aside From Still Meaningful Timing Diffs The
Ukmet/Cmc Remain S/E Of The Gfs.
This System Will Likely Support A Band Of Hvy Rnfl From The Cntrl Gulf Coast Across The Extreme Southeast. Ensemble Means Continue To Offer A Decent Compromise With Respect To Nwwd Extent Of The Pcpn Shield Given Current Guidance Spread... With Some Wintry Pcpn Psbl Depending On Exact Evolution Of The System.
Upstream Nrn Pac Energy Should Begin Amplifying Over The Conus
Around Wed-Thu... With Gfs Runs And Some Recent Gefs Means
Becoming More Neutrally Tilted Than Other Solns By Late Week.
Teleconnections Relative To The Positive Hgt Anomaly Center Fcst
Over The Ern Pac Favor A Decent Positive Tilt To The Conus Trough
With Energy Extending Into The Swrn States... Favoring The
Ecmwf/Ecmwf Mean And Cmc/Cmc Mean In Principle.
One Concern Is The Fairly Prompt And Well Agreed Upon Arrival Of Another Shrtwv To The West Coast Day 7 Sat. This May Keep The Srn Part Of The Trough Of Interest From Lingering Over The Sw For Very Long. Thus A Minority Weighting Of The Gefs Mean Is Merited... With The 12z Version Chosen Due To Being Closer To The Preferred Cluster In Shape And Slower Timing Versus The 18z Run.
This May End Up Being A Rather Complex System As Ecmwf Runs And Some Ensembles Show One Sfc Low Tracking Thru The Nrn Plains Into The Grtlks Mid-Late Week While Additional Waviness Develops Over The Gulf/Sern Conus By Sat.
Potential Exists For Significant Rain/Snow/Wind Impacts Over
Portions Of The East Around And Just After The End Of The Fcst
Period Next Sat. Earlier In The Period This Energy Will Support
Some Pcpn Over The Nw And Then The Rockies Into Portions Of The
With The Aforementioned Shrtwv Reaching The West Coast Next Sat...
The 12z Ecmwf May Be Overdone With Its Sharpness/Amplitude Thus
Favoring A Blend Of Other Guidance. Keeping Its Soln In The
Minority With The Overall Blend Minimizes The Adverse Impact Of
The 12z Ecmwf Soln On This Feature.
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